This is weird and reactionary. Lots of organizations are continuing to refuse to use chinese models due to security and IP concerns. Anthropic/american models aren't going anywhere anytime soon.
> Lots of organizations are continuing to refuse to use chinese models
Correction: Lots of organizations are refusing to use Anthropic Fable because they have forced opt-in data collection as part of their privacy policy, even for Enterprise.
Both things, and both reasons, can be true at the same time.
Not everyone's going to care about Anthropic requiring data collection (a similar debate plays out with regards to "pay or consent" on website tracking), just as not everyone cares about China with regards to security/IP issues (if they did, a lot more would be banned besides occasionally-Huawei).
I would assume the opposite is true — with an open-weight Fable-class model, doesn't demand for GPUs go up? Plenty of companies can now look at what Anthropic is offering — high per token costs for a very intelligent model — and do the math, and at some point it makes sense to just rent the GPU yourself and run Kimi on it if you get similar intelligence without paying Anthropic's margins (albeit with high upfront capital cost).
This would drive down Anthropic's margins, but drive up demand for datacenter and GPU capacity. It's not that people would be using fewer GPUs, they'd just shift demand from high priced token vendors to direct GPU rental, which benefits datacenter companies while hurting Anthropic.
Oracle is fine, it's just that they can't really expect political decisions that hindered it to accquire TikTok which will be slated to be the biggest customer if the deal went through.
Now they are betting with Project Stargate but it also seems to be crumbling down.
But don't forget that they literally hold the biggest databases, both in commercial and open source, that is, Oracle Database and MySQL. Plus Oracle Java they literally controls at least 30% of the internet's software infrastructure.
And also with a good team of attorneies enforcing the licenses, they can squeeze so much money at the cost of morality.
Also recently they downgraded the always free OCI ARM instance from 4C24G to 2C12G without telling anyone.
These "real world" examples are nothing like the way I use LLMs from within a harness. GPT 5.6 Sol and Fable are clearly more impressive, but how does this translate to interactive agent use, or use under an agent orchestration framework?
As much as I like GLM 5.2 it's clearly a step below Opus (or even Fable) for more complicated tasks. I would place it at Opus 4.6/4.7 level.
Having said that, the safety system on Fable makes it an extremely unattractive model. It feels that half of the time you're paying double for Opus level performance.
GLM has issues with tool calls and nested JSON and it wastes tokens pretty often. I see it being a bit above half the price of Opus in a bit more complex eval tasks. With some RL you could probably get the tool calls sorted and the price down.
This is weird and reactionary. Lots of organizations are continuing to refuse to use chinese models due to security and IP concerns. Anthropic/american models aren't going anywhere anytime soon.
> Lots of organizations are continuing to refuse to use chinese models due to security and IP concerns
This is such a common omission: the Chinese models are open, you can host them yourself on your premises. So privacy and independence.
it's well documented that models can be adversarially trained with essentially backdoors in response to special inputs
while I am skeptical that this is happening atm, there are probably many industries where the risk does not seem worthwhile
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Good luck hosting 2.8T params yourself. A box capable of this at a useful performance level is at least $100k.
> Lots of organizations are continuing to refuse to use chinese models
Correction: Lots of organizations are refusing to use Anthropic Fable because they have forced opt-in data collection as part of their privacy policy, even for Enterprise.
Both things, and both reasons, can be true at the same time.
Not everyone's going to care about Anthropic requiring data collection (a similar debate plays out with regards to "pay or consent" on website tracking), just as not everyone cares about China with regards to security/IP issues (if they did, a lot more would be banned besides occasionally-Huawei).
Nope, but I think this is maybe the critical mass needed to finally crash the AI hype/datacenter cost problem everyones is talking about.
With Oracle being junk before this, more will follow.
I would assume the opposite is true — with an open-weight Fable-class model, doesn't demand for GPUs go up? Plenty of companies can now look at what Anthropic is offering — high per token costs for a very intelligent model — and do the math, and at some point it makes sense to just rent the GPU yourself and run Kimi on it if you get similar intelligence without paying Anthropic's margins (albeit with high upfront capital cost).
This would drive down Anthropic's margins, but drive up demand for datacenter and GPU capacity. It's not that people would be using fewer GPUs, they'd just shift demand from high priced token vendors to direct GPU rental, which benefits datacenter companies while hurting Anthropic.
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Oracle is fine, it's just that they can't really expect political decisions that hindered it to accquire TikTok which will be slated to be the biggest customer if the deal went through.
Now they are betting with Project Stargate but it also seems to be crumbling down.
But don't forget that they literally hold the biggest databases, both in commercial and open source, that is, Oracle Database and MySQL. Plus Oracle Java they literally controls at least 30% of the internet's software infrastructure.
And also with a good team of attorneies enforcing the licenses, they can squeeze so much money at the cost of morality.
Also recently they downgraded the always free OCI ARM instance from 4C24G to 2C12G without telling anyone.
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Models need datacenters to run. It also need other services to do anything useful
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This is apparently Open Weights, so no reason Amazon can't serve it alongside GLM which they already do.
If it ends up being open weights, companies will use it running in US data centers.
You can run open weight models anywhere.
Cursor will rebrand it as Composer 3.0 to assuage any such concerns, as they did with the previous Kimi models.
More likely for them to use Kimi 2.7 since Grok is now the flagship product.
Certainly for their IPO, anyway
Nah:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSlV206xPqM
These real world examples show it's one tier away.
These "real world" examples are nothing like the way I use LLMs from within a harness. GPT 5.6 Sol and Fable are clearly more impressive, but how does this translate to interactive agent use, or use under an agent orchestration framework?
This is a question I am going to get an answer tomorrow with evals. Extremely interesting...
Fable is by Anthropic, and this is too expensive, GLM 5.2 is roughly the same quality at a much cheaper price.
(I mantain a client with llama.cpp and 101 models across 14 companies by http)
As much as I like GLM 5.2 it's clearly a step below Opus (or even Fable) for more complicated tasks. I would place it at Opus 4.6/4.7 level.
Having said that, the safety system on Fable makes it an extremely unattractive model. It feels that half of the time you're paying double for Opus level performance.
Fable won’t even generate a jwt to test endpoints because it is security related. It is crazy capable but useless for real work
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GLM has issues with tool calls and nested JSON and it wastes tokens pretty often. I see it being a bit above half the price of Opus in a bit more complex eval tasks. With some RL you could probably get the tool calls sorted and the price down.