Comment by boogerlad

Interesting, thanks for sharing.

Although in the month since that most recent post, his other points about open models are undercut by K3.

And at least of data available as of 2026-01, AI compute capacity was doubling every 7 months, so I expect every major country to host AI compute farms, and self-host AI feasibility to majorly increase in the next 2-3 years as well. (Partially undercutting, but not fully disproving, his points.)

And I wish his posts were 4 times less wordy.

I think a better framing is the marginal utility of the models capability growth. At a certain point frontier models will only be needed for frontier problems. The demand for that capability will decrease with time. The hand wringing about not understanding is to my mind anthropomorphic - AI of today lack agency and awareness. Even the constructed stuff Anthropic puts out there in the model docs involve contrived scenarios to elicit “scary” behaviors. It’s unclear that as models become more sophisticated whether they’re better at instruction following or not but it certainly feels that way - even if it’s through better alignment or just an artifact of scaling. However I think the malign actors of humans using powerful models for bad stuff isn’t unreasonable to be concerned about.

The marginal utility problem is a real one for AI companies. I think the current generations are already saturating marginal utility for 95% of the population. Almost everyone I know outside of my career has no use for a more powerful model. This is a serious problem for the economics of AI and semiconductor investment. This is a bigger problem than Chinese models. It leads to a demand curve problem - that supply outstrips demand.