Comment by somenameforme

Bayesian probability. Were outcomes being driven by 'normal' usage of LLMs then it's extremely improbable that both big discoveries would come from the small number of people working at the companies. That suggests working at the companies is more the decisive factor than the LLMs in and of themselves.

And what do you get from working at the company? Likely a rather massive token/processing budget. The companies opacity towards the path to these discoveries also makes this further probable as 'spend millions of dollars in tokens' is a somewhat less attractive narrative than the implied narrative of 'just use Fable.'