Comment by HighGoldstein
4 days ago
Decade? We're 4 years in since ChatGPT released publicly and have gone from "Wow this thing is stupid" to running coding agents on auto mode, and the Chinese labs have been around for even less time. The US providers may lose dominance in 1 or 2 years.
> may lose dominance in 1 or 2 years
In some portions they already lost dominance. My claude will happily generate disgustingly vulnerable code then flag me for ToS violation when I ask it to make sure the code that it just made, in the same context window, in the same conversation is safe and doesn't have glaring holes. Also great to be charged $xx.xx+ amounts and then it refuses to answer without refunding it.
They won't. China doesn't have the training capacity and the quality data sets, the former because of access to fabs, the latter because of internal censorship that is getting worse by day.
Simple as that.
The current panic is happening precisely because Chinese open weight models like Kimi and Qwen are demonstrably competitive with SotA models like Fable, but far cheaper.
https://fireworks.ai/blog/kimik3-fable
No, the Chinese tech companies routinely super optimize for a given 'famous' or 'established' or 'mainstream' benchmarks. Any other concern is secondary.
In other words, they look good on surface, but suck whenever anyone put them to any serious use. That's why they are cheap, they have to be cheap because they suck.
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> the latter because of internal censorship
Having limited amounts of high quality Chinese data to train on doesn’t really decrease or affect the appeal of these models to the rest of the world. I don’t think the CCP is restricting or limiting the datasets that models can be trained on.
Also the models themselves don’t even seem to be censored or restricted that much. If the Chinese government is fine with the guardrails being on the API level and maybe even restricts the usage of external providers that’s again a net benefit to everyone else since they would have little incentives to force Chinese companies to lobotomize their models.
You are probably about capacity so we can only hope that Huawei and others can catch up and break Nvidia’s monopoly (since Intel and AMD suck too much too much to accomplish anything useful that’s the next best thing)
Also Chinese labs are actually still publishing research publicly which alone would accelerate and increase the competitiveness of open AI models developed in the US or even Europe.
> doesn’t really decrease or affect the appeal of these models to the rest of the world
Anyone who tried using Chinese models for serious programming tasks ditch them quickly if they have a choice.
> I don’t think the CCP is restricting or limiting the datasets that models can be trained on.
What I meant was censorship limits the amount of high quality training sets by limiting the amount of all training sets from which high quality sets grow out from, e.g. the entire set of posts on Baidu forums before 2017 is gone forever.
> so we can only hope that Huawei
Chinese companies do not have access to commercial-scale advanced nodes. The impact is at best negligible.
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I’m talking about our overall economic dominance.
We’re still the most powerful economy on earth, but I can’t imagine this continuing forever.
By what metric - GDP? That measures price level, not economic power.
Most expensive groceries, rents, and healthcare in the world!
Winning!
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> By what metric
imperial
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