Comment by laughing_man
4 days ago
Why do you say they're "clearly going to be worried about getting nuked"? I see no indication that's true.
4 days ago
Why do you say they're "clearly going to be worried about getting nuked"? I see no indication that's true.
That is similar to pointing to someone on the street and claiming they want to commit suicide because you see no indication that they want to live. Unless there is strong evidence we can safely assume people don't want to be nuked. "I see no indication" is not the standard. The Iranians didn't start this, they don't seem to want to continue it and it is obvious that their planning will involve basic considerations like not doing things that will get them nuked.
Although hitting the AWS data centre in Tel Aviv seems like it would be a great tit-for-tat strike to really annoy the US and Israelis without threatening them in a way that will provoke a nuclear response or doing real damage to civilians. So I don't see why they'd purposefully hold back on that.
What target could the Iranians hit you believe would provoke a nuclear response?
Things like the Knesset, attempts to knock out the entire military leadership simultaneously, maybe some sort of attack designed to wipe out a significant % of Israelis although I don't know what that would look like (maybe some sort of hit to take out food distribution or water).
Attacks trying to topple the Israeli state, in essence. Knocking out profitable capital is quite unlikely to do it.
2 replies →
> What target could the Iranians hit you believe would provoke a nuclear response?
Anything existential. (Tehran doesn’t currently have that capability.)
15 replies →
What would you expect to see if they were? ooc
I would expect them to not launch thousands of missiles at Israel... is that a trick question?
It's theater for the Iranian regime. They expect almost all of the missiles will get taken down by the iron dome and US interdiction, but they still need to launch them to save face at home and not let attacks go unrequited lest they look weak.
Iran doesn't actually want to hit Israel hard, or at least doesn't want to do it right now. If they did, they wouldn't rattle their sabers so hard before each giant volley toward Israel, giving the Israelis ample time to prepare for a strike.
No trick. Other people dont think that is the natural implication.
They seem to be correct because Israel has not nuked Iran in responses.