By something that is going to replace my job by writing better code and shipping more features at a fraction of the cost, without asking for vacation? I don't know, boss; I'm also trying to understand why I'm tired.
We'll see about that, long term. The billions and trillions being wasted right now to get the foot in the door need to be earned back somehow at some point...
"Nice company you have there, totally reliant on our AI tech. Oh by the way we gotta increase the rent again."
Doesn't really make sense as there are already open weight models that are close to frontier models, and the compute to run them isn't outrageously expensive, and every indication that it will only get cheaper over time as has been the strong trend in terms of $/outcome.
Working with AI has been way more tiring than just working. Sure the productivity is up, at the cost of having to keep up many thought threads, having no calm moments, and needing to consistently dig into large unknown code cases to find weird bugs.
I’ve been on leave for a month, and am super excited (/s) to re-learn everything because all the tooling and ways to prompt “correctly” will have also changed.
Because the ability to create software has little inherent value to me and is only valuable to me because it allows me to earn enough to make this life somewhat bearable.
LLMs that can build a computer vision pipeline are a direct threat to my ability to sustain myself. At the same time, being able to prompt an LLM to build a computer vision pipeline doesn't really positively affect my life at all, because personally I don't care that much about computer vision pipelines (or frankly, any software).
> The ability to create software accelerates technological progress, which has direct and indirect benefits for everyone.
It has benefits for people with enough leverage (money and formerly labour) to obtain those benefits.
> It is true that competition could have short-term negative effect on people who sustain themselves by creating software, though.
I'm guessing that even if the unlikeliest of all unlikely things does happen and we all live off of some UBI some day, the short-term negative effects won't be "short-term" in the context of a human life.
It’s unlikely to stop here. Today is a proprietary 5T parameter model, tomorrow it’s 5 100B parameter models that each specialize to specific applications and you can run them on your phone. The direction of travel is not like you think. The real victim will be medium to large software companies that can no longer rely on the difficulty of reproducing or maintaining or hosting their software as moat.
> Why, I wonder.
By something that is going to replace my job by writing better code and shipping more features at a fraction of the cost, without asking for vacation? I don't know, boss; I'm also trying to understand why I'm tired.
> at a fraction of the cost
We'll see about that, long term. The billions and trillions being wasted right now to get the foot in the door need to be earned back somehow at some point...
"Nice company you have there, totally reliant on our AI tech. Oh by the way we gotta increase the rent again."
Doesn't really make sense as there are already open weight models that are close to frontier models, and the compute to run them isn't outrageously expensive, and every indication that it will only get cheaper over time as has been the strong trend in terms of $/outcome.
it's a net positive for the human race
is it?
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Working with AI has been way more tiring than just working. Sure the productivity is up, at the cost of having to keep up many thought threads, having no calm moments, and needing to consistently dig into large unknown code cases to find weird bugs.
I’ve been on leave for a month, and am super excited (/s) to re-learn everything because all the tooling and ways to prompt “correctly” will have also changed.
Like the noise thunder makes while loading before striking you, insanely amazing, potentially problematic
It's about perspective.
Nuclear reactions are way more powerful, but we've harness them to power our world.
They are not intelligent though.
And to make bombs.
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Because the ability to create software has little inherent value to me and is only valuable to me because it allows me to earn enough to make this life somewhat bearable.
LLMs that can build a computer vision pipeline are a direct threat to my ability to sustain myself. At the same time, being able to prompt an LLM to build a computer vision pipeline doesn't really positively affect my life at all, because personally I don't care that much about computer vision pipelines (or frankly, any software).
The ability to create software accelerates technological progress, which has direct and indirect benefits for everyone.
It is true that competition could have short-term negative effect on people who sustain themselves by creating software, though.
> The ability to create software accelerates technological progress, which has direct and indirect benefits for everyone.
It has benefits for people with enough leverage (money and formerly labour) to obtain those benefits.
> It is true that competition could have short-term negative effect on people who sustain themselves by creating software, though.
I'm guessing that even if the unlikeliest of all unlikely things does happen and we all live off of some UBI some day, the short-term negative effects won't be "short-term" in the context of a human life.
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More than AI, then, youre simply not made for capitalism. I can understand that..
Most humans aren't.
Because these productivity increases will be to the detriment of the average person. We won’t get to reap the benefits.
You probably will. It's similar to steam engine and mechanical power loom.
It’s unlikely to stop here. Today is a proprietary 5T parameter model, tomorrow it’s 5 100B parameter models that each specialize to specific applications and you can run them on your phone. The direction of travel is not like you think. The real victim will be medium to large software companies that can no longer rely on the difficulty of reproducing or maintaining or hosting their software as moat.
> We won’t get to reap the benefits.
There is no rational reason to think that. A rising tide lifts all boats.
Not a lot of boat lifting happened in the last few decades. (See "WTF happened in 1971".)
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