Comment by sterlind
1 month ago
wouldn't stop AI companies from continuing to develop using their current infrastructure.
the West could retaliate by halting shipments of photoresist and other materials to China.
meanwhile, Intel second-sources Nvidia and starts pumping out GPUs.
the economic fallout would be devastating as trade wars and export bans on both sides make Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs look like NAFTA.
The rest of the world would likely side with China. The export ban on Fable wasn’t even extended to five eyes countries.
US is going to find itself isolated and irrelevant. And not a moment too soon.
I do wonder what the world will look like under a chinese hegemony though...
China is very inward-looking, though. It's not really interested in world domination in the same sense that Europe was or even the USA was/is.
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better dim sum, hopefully. the local chinese food is a crime against gastronomy.
It's called Tang and Ming dynasty. We already know.
You’re already seeing it. Strategic bilateralism.
We are moving from unipolar hegemony to multipolar. There will be upwards of a dozen poles in time
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Keep an eye on Central Asia and Pakistan then? They are heavily infuenced by China.
No worse than under US hegemony
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certainly better than this one. Look at Africa under western neocolonialism vs China's infrastructure loans
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> the West could retaliate by halting shipments of
China quickly retaliated last time by stopping shipments of rare earths and magnets. The West has no answer for this, really up the river without a paddle for such critical supply chain elements.
China controls way more things, from medical needles to pharmaceutical ingredient.
Lots of them can be made in the west or west friendly countries, but that takes time, money, infrastructure and good execution. Yes, identical to what is covered in China's belt and road initiatives. See the gap now?
I was led to believe that the US does have internal sources of these, but they are largely undeveloped. For years the processing could not economically compete with China so shutdown.
Which is to say, given internal subsidies, the US could eventually produce some on its own.
Unless I misunderstood the situation.
I believe we both share this understanding, the problems are
1. China controls ~90% today
2. The US will find it difficult to build out because of how dirty and environmentally damaging mining and processing are.
I did see some research last week about a better way to process rare earths, but it is still research and will need to be industrialized.
Regardless, it will take many years (decade+?) to become self sufficient and China is already willing to and increasingly restricting them
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China would just start buying oil again, and stop using it from their strategic reserve. Hello $200 barrels of oil.