Comment by vrganj
1 month ago
Prediction Markets are people gambling.
There's armed goons nabbing people off the streets and murdering political opponents patrolling American cities right now.
1 month ago
Prediction Markets are people gambling.
There's armed goons nabbing people off the streets and murdering political opponents patrolling American cities right now.
>Prediction Markets are people gambling.
If you think the market has it wrong, why don't you make money by betting against it?
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-20...
>There's armed goons nabbing people off the streets and murdering political opponents patrolling American cities right now.
What is the actual per-capita rate of big flashy news stories? Remember that the US has a population of 340 million. One-in-a-million events will occur every day; they aren't necessarily representative.
> If you think the market has it wrong, why don't you make money by betting against it?
Because I am not gambler. And it is not "market" it is a casino. It does not predict, people put in bets. And like I said, while I understand gambling appeal on an emotional level, I decided to not be a gambler.
> One-in-a-million events will occur every day; they aren't necessarily representative.
It is literal official policy. Not a random event.
> If you think the market has it wrong, why don't you make money by betting against it?
I don't just think "the market has it wrong", I think a market is wrong conceptually. It is not an epistemological tool, it's rich people gambling - a money-weighted accumulation of guesses - and I'd rather not partake.
> What is the actual per-capita rate of big flashy news stories?
What is the appropriate rate of brownshirts murdering political opponents? Which level of kids being nabbed from their homes is acceptable?
>I don't just think "the market has it wrong", I think a market is wrong conceptually. I'd rather not join the other degenerate gamblers.
"My beliefs are unfalsifiable"
>What is the appropriate rate of brownshirts murdering political opponents? Which level of kids being nabbed from their homes is acceptable?
Tom Homan, Trump's border czar, also served in the Obama administration. Obama gave him a medal for his deportation work. People like you will frame the same activity quite differently depending on whether you like the people who are doing it.
In any case, I didn't deny that the US had a problem with authoritarianism. I said it wasn't obvious that it was on an "authoritarian path". See for example https://www.npr.org/2026/04/04/nx-s1-5768273/after-minnesota...
I'll bet you yourself would happily justify the EU authoritarianism here: https://eternallyradicalidea.com/p/the-situation-for-free-sp... You seem like the sort of person who has an authoritarian mentality. You'll happily support cops arresting people for saying things online, but if cops arrest people for illegally entering a country, that somehow crosses a line into "authoritarianism". Am I right?
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