Comment by 0xDEAFBEAD
1 month ago
>The US is on an obvious authoritarian path; complete with threatening their neighbors, murdering innocent civilians, and locking up innocent people in droves
Prediction markets suggest the next US president is most likely one of the following people: Gavin Newsom, Jon Ossoff, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Kamala Harris, JD Vance, Marco Rubio.
It's not obvious to me that the US is on an "authoritarian path".
Would you say that e.g. Europe is on an "authoritarian path" with the popularity of government censorship there? https://eternallyradicalidea.com/p/the-situation-for-free-sp...
Your comment seems like more of a diatribe than a serious analysis of likely future scenarios.
>Would you say that e.g. Europe is on an "authoritarian path" with the popularity of government censorship there?
As an European citizen living in Europe, definitely yes it is, and not only for the "mere" censorship factor. Maybe not yet as down the road and maybe not going as fast as US. But that’s not something that one can really be content of.
Prediction Markets are people gambling.
There's armed goons nabbing people off the streets and murdering political opponents patrolling American cities right now.
>Prediction Markets are people gambling.
If you think the market has it wrong, why don't you make money by betting against it?
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-20...
>There's armed goons nabbing people off the streets and murdering political opponents patrolling American cities right now.
What is the actual per-capita rate of big flashy news stories? Remember that the US has a population of 340 million. One-in-a-million events will occur every day; they aren't necessarily representative.
> If you think the market has it wrong, why don't you make money by betting against it?
Because I am not gambler. And it is not "market" it is a casino. It does not predict, people put in bets. And like I said, while I understand gambling appeal on an emotional level, I decided to not be a gambler.
> One-in-a-million events will occur every day; they aren't necessarily representative.
It is literal official policy. Not a random event.
> If you think the market has it wrong, why don't you make money by betting against it?
I don't just think "the market has it wrong", I think a market is wrong conceptually. It is not an epistemological tool, it's rich people gambling - a money-weighted accumulation of guesses - and I'd rather not partake.
> What is the actual per-capita rate of big flashy news stories?
What is the appropriate rate of brownshirts murdering political opponents? Which level of kids being nabbed from their homes is acceptable?
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