Comment by linzhangrun

5 hours ago

Thinking that five or six years from now, Fable-level intelligence could be provided at 100x the current speed... makes me feel lost. I cannot imagine what the future will look like.

24 comments

linzhangrun

Reply
dyzone  2 hours ago

It tells me that they have some kind of insider knowledge that the models have hit their limits and won't be getting much better, and it makes sense economically speaking to just bake the current models and use them for the next 5-10 years. Looks like we're near the top of the S curve.

  • hahahaa  1 hour ago

    A model you can run for practically no cost is a new proposition. It is the CPUification of AI. Sure there be supercomputers but you PC will be pretty super too.

  • mountainriver  2 hours ago

    What would possibly tell you that?

    • Maxion  25 minutes ago

      Expensive as fuck to make chips, only makes sense if you believe whatever model you're creating a chip out of will not become completely irrelevant in 5-10 years.

ilaksh  5 hours ago

Cerebras already runs large models like Kimi 2.6 or GLM at like 30x speed. 100 times is next year, not six years.

You can actually test it out on their website, just imagine 3 x faster and maybe 15% smarter.

  • kllrnohj  2 hours ago

    Cerebras is literally the entire wafer, so it can't get bigger. So where is the jump from 30x to 100x coming from? Node improvements only yield like 10-20% gains these days...

    • ilaksh  2 hours ago

      They have a next generation, I don't really know if it will be 3 x or what but I heard it was significantly better.

      Also there are other people innovating in hardware.

__MatrixMan__  2 hours ago

Last month: agents spend 4 days on a hack, humans spend 3 weeks (so far) digging through the slop to figure out what happened

Next time, one of those number will be smaller, and the other will likely be bigger. How long before the analysis side gets too overwhelming to bother with? Probably less than 6 years.