Comment by tunesmith
15 hours ago
Generally speaking, the pattern is that people are overestimating how much "work replacement" will happen, and underestimating how much "work shifting" will happen.
What is fascinating is how you can witness it at so many levels of organization. One example: Employer executive get enamored with moving from labor to capital. They believe that by using LLMs, they can replace a lot of workers. At my place of employment, we have people that are surprised they can't file a Jira ticket describing a product ask, and have it kick off an implementation. You can build the skill to attempt that, but invariably you'll get back questions like "what do you mean by <x>" and "what do you want to do in this case, a, b, or c?"; questions that a product person or an exec are not well suited to answer.
In the past, programmers did that kind of interpretation and judgment call. So then you're in a quandary; who should do that work? Work that previously, you never imagined was an inherent part of what the replaceable code monkeys do at your beck and call?
And then, how do you hire for that? How do you find the training for the people that are experienced enough with... something... to know what a cohesive error response is, or what kind of telemetry strategy is best for that particular product and organization, what collection of product asks are incredibly complicated for what they're asking and can deliver 95% of the benefits at 5% of the work if we just do this instead, and whether you want to aim more towards thick or thin clients?
Who are those people? Wait, those are programmers? Wait, there's this whole collection of inherently human skills that we devalued, by not appreciating they were always quietly doing that for us in the past?
That's just one example. There's a repeating pattern of discovering where the work truly is, work that was embedded in manual patterns we might not have to involve ourselves with anymore, but is yet still essential. So the nature of our jobs changes massively, but the overall level of employment does not.
At least, not in the medium to long term. There is a lot of painful churn we have to suffer through first.
I agree with you in the broad strokes, but replacement by LLMs isn't the only way the level of employment can be reduced. If LLMs can make it so that two programmers can do the work that used to require five, that can result in a very large reduction in employment, even while having (some) programmers is still essential.
Only if there is no further additional demand created by the now lower cost of doing the work. Take lighting as an example. As it has progressed from burning expensive candles to now leds, our demand for lighting has continued to increase.
On the bet that layoffs will result in programmers ending up at 40% of the staffing level they are now, I will take the over.
What sources do you think are good for this data for the recent past? My brief initial search is turning up a lot of contradictory data, probably because the sources are defining "programmers" differently from each other.