Comment by a2ff6eeb0
24 days ago
The first one to AGI with enough compute to run the AI wins it all. Humans will not be able to compete.
24 days ago
The first one to AGI with enough compute to run the AI wins it all. Humans will not be able to compete.
If Anthropic is the first to develop AGI, then everyone else becomes subordinate to Dario Amodei? And if DeepSeek is the first to get there, everyone instead becomes subordinate to Liang Wenfeng? I cannot believe that there is a threshold of intelligence where getting there first means a decisive and durable advantage. If you do believe that getting there first means ruling the world, then our viewpoints are probably too far apart for mutual understanding.
It's not so much whether we believe this, it is about whether they and enough of their supporters believe it. Because the effect of believing that is what drives their need to 'be the first' at the expense of everything else.
It depends what you mean by 'subordinate' -- but even a small but persistent advantage in decision making compounds, so I can't imagine that someone getting that advantage doesn't use it to kill their competition.
No? Plenty of dumb people and dysfunctional political systems stayed for loooong or even won a lot of power.