Comment by enos_feedler
12 hours ago
For this example, if you built a browser in 2000 it would put you in a great position to launch android in 2008. I think this is pg’s point. You spend all this time learning the interesting bits and when an inflection comes along that makes a new product or service possible you could be the one to likely launch it
That’s like saying if you can dunk in 8th grade you could be the next LeBron James. A LOT more things have to fall perfectly in place at the perfect time for that end result to materialize.
Each new bet will be expensive and depend less on technical merit than luck and having a backup so your family doesn't starve.
Agree.
FWIW I built browsers from 1999 for a long time. (But I was never a wunderkind, just somewhat tenaciously curious).
And I guess I am doing fine, but not amazingly rich or so.
Browsers were always a project closer to research/charity. I think Marc Andreessen said something similar - that he would never do that again. B2B is where you can make money.
I am talking from the perspective of the individual developer.
You don't need your impressive product to succeed to land a good career.
If Alice is doing LLM-from-scratch work today, and Bob is doing agent harness work today, Bob's project is far more likely than Alice's to become useful/popular/profitable.
But if neither project survives, in 5 years, Alice will be more employable/at a higher market rate than Bob.
Neither one has even gone to college yet. I’d expect Alice’s project to be more likely to interest professors, get some undergrad research experience, maybe that can turn into something.
This was his point. Being prepare to launch a produce when the opportunity comes.