Comment by nsedlet
16 days ago
Credit cards also transfer wealth from people who pay interest to people who don’t.
It’s a silly system, where everyone has to invest their time (optimizing for rewards, avoiding interest) in an ultimately negative sum game. I hate it so much.
Patrick McKenzie rebuts this here: (podcast) https://open.spotify.com/episode/2E2KRPcDvh1LcRw5bIsBms or here (article): https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/anatomy-of-credit-car...
The intuition being: people who carry balances and pay interest don't actually spend very much; they are not wealthy.
What does that graph tell you? Because I think patio11 wanted to send one message and people accidentally misunderstand the graph.
That's the interchange income corresponding to wealthy people. Interchange is paid by the card-accepting business, not by the buyer. The buyer pays interest and other fees and that graph looks very different.
From that original study the full picture table says in % of ADB that the "poorest" (below 620 FICO) pay ~45% interest and fees but bring only 2% additionally in interchange income. The wealthy (at 800+) pay ~10% interest and fees but bring another almost 10% interchange income, on 4 times higher spending, and 3 times higher rewards (so the wealthy get ~12 times higher rewards in $ value than the "poor").
Just the percentages paid by each group more than offset the difference in spending. There are also way more "poor" accounts than wealthy accounts. Intuitively you can tell that the banks are effectively subsidizing the fees and interest for the wealthy with the income from the poor, for the sake of the interchange income which is mostly generated by the wealthy but doesn't come from their pocket.
Those poorest of people (<620 FICO) pay more interest and fees (percentage and absolute terms) than any other group. There's a range in the middle on the wealth scale where the customers are actually a net loss for the banks (the 660-760 FICO range).
Businesses raise prices to account for interchange fees. So they are essentially is paid by the consumer. If we outlawed rewards credit cards (by capping interchange fees), everything would likely be slightly cheaper.
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I think that's out of date. He links to a study showing interchange revenue net of rewards showing up to 3% by high FICO scores. (Just at a gut check that seems crazy to me, since interchange revenue doesn't really go much above 3%!). But that's from 2013. I remember when Fidelity launched its 2% flat cashback AmEx back in 2003. People didn't really know if it would be sustainable. Now 2% is a dime a dozen.
The most recent I've seen otherwise is this Federal Reserve study[0] from 2022. It finds that the marginal return on swipes is actually slightly negative because of how juicy rewards have gotten, and 80% of their profitability comes from interest (with most of the rest fees):
> we find that, on average, the credit function makes up approximately 80 percent of the credit card profitability, whereas the contribution of the transaction function is slightly negative, as rewards and other expenses on credit card transactions outpace banks' interchange revenues.5 In addition, fees—in particular late fees—comprise approximately 15 percent of credit card profitability.
[0] https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/cred...
Credit card companies make 3/4 of their revenue from interest. From Capital One's 10k, Net Interest Income vs. Total Net Revenue:
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0000927628/0...
I don't really know my way around corporate filings, but...is that just for credit cards?
Capital One also is supposedly huge on car loans; I'd imagine the interest from those would comprise a big chunk of that revenue.
That "intuition" is agreeing with the parent.
Discussion of Patrick's article:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39928604
Patrick McKenzie is a dishonest industry insider that cannot be trusted on this topic, and therefore probably any other. Sophistry to an extreme.
I gave up long ago trying to optimize any rewards, it just ended up being stressful and not really worth it ultimately.
Now I just use my apple card everywhere, pay it off every month and get whatever rewards I get.
It feels like a weird situation, those that stand to gain the most from credit cards are also the ones that should feel a difference of under $100 in rewards the least.
The one exception I see is bonus sign up rewards since those can be fairly significant, or making sure you use an airline card at the airline since those bonuses can be fairly significant (with sometimes other benefits). But outside of those exceptions, just choose a card with good rewards and stick with that and pay it off every month.
I gave up on optimizing and just use the Robinhood Gold 3% cashback card everywhere (except Amazon/WF, where I use their 5% Chase card). I can probably get more than 3% cashback in some categories on other cards, or more ROI by switch to points, high-tier cards like Chase Sapphire, and churning, but I just don't care.
The gain of a few thousand per annum is not worth the mental distraction.
I do the same. Just a single card for most spending, but has a bunch of handy features. I pay $50 a year for that, the convenience in case it gets stolen etc. I will say though that it's a little annoying to constantly transfer to the brokerage and then to the bank, but not too bad.
I've generally tried to stay with cash back rewards in categories that don't change, that's been the best way to balance complexity with rewards for me while not nudging me to buy stuff I don't actually need. I don't like messing with points or rotating categories or included subscriptions. With one exception I avoid annual fees as well.
So like, I have a card that's 6% on groceries, another that's 3% on gas and restaurants, Apple Card does 2% on Apple Pay transactions, and I have a 1.5% card for everything else.
Ive aligned to literally the exact same lineup. Amex blue cash preferred for our 6% groceries.
> It feels like a weird situation, those that stand to gain the most from credit cards are also the ones that should feel a difference of under $100 in rewards the least.
It’s expensive to be poor. Higher interest rates, no credit card rewards, higher unit prices at places like Dollar General, etc.
I don't bother with rewards either, be it cards or memberships or whatnot - too much hassle if you're also working full time. BUT: one thing I use the credit card for and that is for the pay and travel insurance attached to it. Could I get it otherwise? Maybe, no idea. But if you don't carry debt (and I never do) there's no downside.
The rewards differences can be significant. Eg 4% vs 1% cash back is $3k difference on an annual spend of $100k.
On the one hand, relative to our income it's not so important, but on the other it feels bad leaving $3k on the table.
How do you spend 100K on a credit card per year? Do you pay housing with the card?
I'm 46. I've never had a credit card. I have a bank account and a debit card. If I can't afford something, I don't buy it.
You can just opt out of using credit cards.
In the US you have several legal safeguards that are not provided by debit cards. Fraud liability limitations, chargebacks, and so on.
You can still implement “if I can’t afford something, I don’t buy it” with a cc. I pay mine off every month so it’s financially the same s a debit card but use a premium card for its purchase benefits.
I used to have this same mentality (no credit cards) when I was younger, until my debit card was stolen and someone took $1000. The bank basically shrugged their shoulders and said there was nothing they could do.
I always get my money back when this happens with a credit card purchase. I've also had to dispute things occasionally, and I almost always get refunded.
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>pay mine off every month so financially the same as a debit card
actually it's better than a debit card, your purchases "float" for half a month on average you get to pay later. if you, as you should, maintain a regimen of always adding to your investment portfolio, this is a non negligible amount.
> In the US you have several legal safeguards that are not provided by debit cards. Fraud liability limitations, chargebacks, and so on.
These are available to Visa and Mastercard debit cards too.
But yeah, the UK has section 75 of the Consumer Credit Act.
If you shop at places where many customers user credit cards, and those places don't change an extra credit card processing fee to customers, then you are effectively paying for those credit card fees whether or not you use one.
Opting out doesn't save you from those costs.
Whole Europe does this.
I never understood why whole nation wants to live in debt just to have one extra month of cash flow (which they’ll probably squander soon).
This is arguably partly because the EU caps card interchange (at 0.3%, generally). So these reward schemes don’t exist, because there’s no money for them, so why would anyone use a credit card over a debit card or bank transfer unless they need the credit? Most people in the US presumably don’t start using credit cards thinking “I’ll get in debt, that’ll be great”; it’s the reward schemes.
Ex-European here. It is very common to overdraft your bank account in Europe. The overdraft interest fees are very similar to the credit cards here in the US. It is basically the same service but with a different execution.
Because it gives me 2.5% cash back, which is basically free money.
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Yet many European countries have high household debt. Switzerland, Sweden, Netherlands, Denmark, some of the highest in the world. I guess it has to be mortgages, since it's true they are not that "big" on credit cards. Although Klarna is a Swedish company.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_household...
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I'm American, and I don't use the extra cash flow (in fact, I make sure to keep more money in my checking account than I spend on the credit card, so I can always auto-pay my bill and therefore never pay any interest).
If I could get a debit card that gave me 2% cash back on all transactions, I'd use that instead!
Pay your credit card balance off every week, and it's an overly complicated debit card but you technically build up a score for future loans. Also maybe you get cash back on that?
Rational if you want a mortgage in the US at least.
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Using a credit card isn't only about living on debt. Some people pay them off every month, and use them for the fraud protection and rewards.
While I hate that it's like this, you're leaving money on the table.
Currently you're keeping money in the bank accruing the bank interest to occasionally pay for stuff.
With a credit card you would get various bonuses/cashback/gameified returns by owing them money, and it costs you nothing as long as you pay them back once a month interest free.
If you however slip up/miss a payment it will cost you a lot.
Both cases suck, but the latter saves you money if you play that game.
That's from a EU perspective. From a US perspective you also require it from a credit score perspective, which EU thankfully hasn't adopted... yet.
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Honorable but foolish. You could effectively get a discount and still use it the same way as your debit card.
Sorry, but I don't care what other people think. It's my money and I'm careful with it.
The entire credit card industry is set up to squeeze out as much profit from people as possible. They offer discounts as an incentive, but it is a huge trap that many, many people fall into. I'm not interested in risk. I'm interested in simplicity.
It's participating in the credit card industry that is foolish.
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Try to pay for SaaS online. Tons of them accept nothing but credit cards; and then some of them accept direct withdrawals from bank account but it takes days to verify. Services using Stripe seems to be the worst at this. (I’ve never carried a credit card balance my whole life.)
Debit cards charge as credit cards no problem. That said not having a credit card is tough on your credit history. You could just have one and pay the balance but then they still have all your data, it sucks
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I assume you've somehow gotten access to stable housing though via that bank account (possibly a home loan, or something else), or accessed a large line of credit before 'modern' credit scoring came into play (FICO scores and the Big Three).
I see many commercials for local banking up here that pulls out 30-40+ year members of the banks boasting about the prosperity the bank provided them, but at the same time, when they'd walked into the bank back in the day A Guy just said "yeah he's good for it" and wrote out the loans they needed.
You can't opt out of the modern credit scoring system and if you fuck it up even once with a bad line item you're out of the running for quite a few things and become virtually poor.
If you are traveling and need to rent a car in the airport - sometimes it is not possible to do without credit card. Otherwise you don't need a credit card.
Using a credit card makes it way, way easier to rent a car or book a hotel room, or do other transactions that require a significant preauth.
If you present a debit card to one of those desks, they may encourage you to swap for a credit card. Because a debit preauth ties up actual funds in your account. A credit preauth costs nothing but part of your credit limit. It really is a difference if you expect to spend money on vacation.
I’ll never understand this credit card debt thing... and why should businesses eat the credit card commission cost? Is it 5%? You pay for it, why should I?
I’ve literally never bought anything with a debit card. I’ve definitely spent over a million dollars on credit cards in the last 3 decades and maybe over 2 million if you include personal and business card transactions.
That’s why businesses eat the credit card fees.
Businesses accept less money when someone pays with BNPL. They also accept less money when someone pays with a credit card.
The reason is rather obvious, people spend more money with credit than they would’ve with cash. Accepting 95 cents on the dollar to get a sale with credit that you wouldn’t have got with cash still earns the seller money, money they wouldn’t have earned without accepting credit.
5% is a pretty high rate IMO. When I worked at retail 20 years ago we got around 2 or 3%, and that was a mom and pop shop, not big retail...
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Vampire Squid. But this is only in one country. Go other places (e.g. New Zealand) and reality is different. There every single transaction has the credit card fee added explicitly.
The reason for a business to want to accept cards is that some fraction of your customers would choose not to buy whatever it is you sell if not for the convenience. Whether that's a guy who decides not to buy donuts because then he won't have even to buy more scratch-offs or the woman who doesn't get those bald tires replaced because if she did the family will be leaving on cheese sandwiches until payday.
For the consumer the reason is that this is revolving credit. If you pay next month you can have stuff today. That's a small relief, unless it turns into a carried balance and then it's an ongoing burden, but you don't think about that burden at first because you're naturally optimistic.
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I don't have to invest any time at all. I just use the (US) card that gives me the greatest benefits, be it cash back or services. Usually I just look at the reward rate, which is a base 2% for me right now going up to 5% for some things.
I love it. As someone who never carries a balance I get paid by banks for doing pretty much nothing at all.
And I don't worry about US retailers, I don't live there.
I should add that rewards are not the best benefits. Sign up bonuses are much more lucrative, running to hundreds of dollars per card, and can often be repeated. Same applies to bank accounts.
Imagine a world where the pipeline from extra fees back to hoop-hopping cashback didn't exist and your services were just cheaper by the same percentage points instead. It's designed to make money off people slipping up instead of serving customers.
Yes, but there are so many financial injustices and inefficiencies in the world.
And it may not work the way you expect. Retailers may favor credit card users if they tend to spend more. There are substantial costs associated with handling cash, so cash users may end up paying more.
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You're not paid by the banks you're paid by other, usually poorer, customers
Incorrect. I am paid by the banks, I have no financial relationship with other customers.
But of course banks make huge amounts of money from poor customers via various fees and interest payments. It warms my heart that I get some of those ill gotten gains insead of the evil banks.
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Assuming you have sufficient income, paying your balance off in full every month and instantly redeeming the rewards each month doesn’t take a whole lot of time. I just use a card that gives 1.5% cash back.
Agreed. I have my rewards configured to automatically convert to cash to reduce my bill. The button was buried deep in the website, but once I found it, I've never had to go back to the rewards site again.
Credit isn't negative sum, it is a positive sum game. "Negative sum" has a specific meaning here and just because wealth is being transferred isn't that significant; positive sum games also have wealth transfers.
It is risky and it is very easy to lose great amounts of money on a bad decision when credit is involved. Arguably that makes it bad. But still not negative sum.
Alternatively CC companies could cut off people over certain credit risk and then be able to charge interest in line with the lower overall credit risk…
Borrowers can also keep from overextending their credit and go on debit cards instead…
Obviously these things can have an impact on people but before the 80s credit cards were not widely available to people with high credit risk and the world still functioned.
Why is it so hard lol? I have the Bank of America Rewards card for 25+ years. 2.62% cashback on everything, 3.5% on dining/travel. Maybe there are better ones out there but this is good. I have auto-pay setup so I don't have to worry. I have not spent a second of my time optimizing anything in last 15 years
Lol because in order to get 2.625% cashback at BoA you need to have $1,000,000 in your BoA accounts, maybe that's why it's hard?
It was $100k for a couple decades. The $1M threshold started just now.
Just be rich. What's so hard about that?
countries ditching those companies are making themselves a favour.
Why do you think it’s a negative sum game?
I don’t have any data, but my intuition is that overall high-fee, high-reward cards increase propensity for consumer spending by at least a few % beyond the fees/rewards.
The merchants think so, too, or they wouldn’t accept the processors that let their banks hand out these cards.
> The merchants think so, too, or they wouldn’t accept the processors that let their banks hand out these cards.
Visa / Mastercard / American Express all have lines of premium credit cards (Visa Infinite, World Elite Mastercard, Amex Platinum), and they're very much too big to ban. You'd just be left with one processor in the US (Discover, now owned by Capital One).
This is wrong. Merchants can elect to only accept debit cards.
In recent years, all of my utilities have added 3%+ credit card surcharges, so I pay most of my household expenses with debit cards/ACH now.
Tmobile, Comcast, Verizon, ATT, Target, grocery store, electric utility and water utility (government), annual vehicle tax (government), auto body shop, daycare, and any home repair contractors all charge 3%+ (or give a discount, same thing), so I basically only use credit cards for other retail stores and travel and restaurants.
So why don’t the Visa and Mastercard banks up fees across their entire card lineup?
If they’re truly too big to give up no matter the fees they charge, they’re leaving money on the table.
Of course, they can’t. If Chase started handing college students a 3% card, the merchants would riot.
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It has no relation to paying interest, only to making transactions with the credit card.
If you use a credit card, but can’t pay it immediately then you pay interest. It’s a trap the less wealthy fall into.
Spending money on don’t have with no financial repercussions is known as the elusive “infinity money hack”. Which clearly does not exist.
Of course there’s going to be a a cost to spending beyond your means.
Yes that is true, and what I said is also true.
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Or you could simply not pay on the credit card, and avoid the trap?
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This isn't correct, rewards and benefits are not 100% funded by interchange fees. They wouldn't be possible without many customers paying interest.
What funds it is besides the point, you didn't understand.
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The relationship is that the service and rewards you get are subsidised by generally poorer people who mess up their financial planning.
Rewards are paid out for transactions, not interest paid, that's all. Otherwise poor people failing payments would get more rewards than the rich which don't. The dynamics would be completely different.
There is literally no time involved in avoiding interest. You pay your complete balance when it's due. As far as rewards go, I can't be bothered with them so I always just opt for cash back which I do maybe twice a year. Time involved: 5 minutes / 6 mo.
There's plenty of time: the time you waste by not spending money you don't have. You have to wait longer until you make more money in order to spend more without interest.
Don't spend money you don't have. Especially don't do it with 20% interest short-term loans. It's not that hard. If you're not financially responsible enough to handle a credit card, do not get one. I didn't have one until my late 20s.
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That is a spurious argument. You have a choice in whether you pay interest, you do not have a choice about a purchase including the cost of paying payment processor fees since the price is the same if you use paper money.
One of the most corrupting yet hidden forces in America today are the payment networks MC/Visa etc. due to their bribing and corruption of the government in order to prevent things like making payment processor fees separate/independent of the cost, i.e., similar to how taxes are added after the fact, not included in the price; and also preventing merchants from having two different prices, cash vs card.
I’m a bit surprised that HBR does not seem to even really have an accurate mental model if the matter, unless they’re making an editorial choice to speak in vernacular turns to relate it to the audience.
The problem is not really the cards, it even credit cards, it’s actually the payment processing networks that are the corrupting force.
If America has a legitimate government, there would have been a federal alternative payment processor that charges nothing as an accompaniment and based on the authority to mint the currency, which is what a payment processor today is, a digital currency mint.
To put it into perspective, when you purchase something by credit card, a merchant may have to l pay a little under 3% on a $100 purchase. When you purchase something cheaper let’s say $5, a merchant may pay 6.5%. And no, they don’t just say “awe shucks, I guess I’ll lose that money”, They increase the prices by some averaged amount.
Some may say that they can’t do that because competition, well, because there is no real competition and because the payment processor de facto monopoly/cartel has basically every single company in lockdown and you have no real alternatives, especially in places like Europe where they’ve foolishly and enthusiastically started forcing everyone into digital payment, all the merchants simply roll what is effectively a kind of organized crime/mob extortion into the prices of the goods and services the common person pays and never knows is paying.
> similar to how taxes are added after the fact
That is not a positive. I'm fine with splitting up a price if you want to show how much tax gets added, but having to continuously do the mental math of "no this item is 10.99 it's 10.99 + tax" is very frustrating. When I pick up a $11 item, I want to spend $11.
I get your point, it's the argument of the disengaged pseudo-citizen that just doesn't want their convenience bothered. We have those here too even though it's a bit different here. A good case could be made for cash payments receiving a discount, i.e., less the payment processor fee. You may not pay $11 when you pick up a $11 item that way either, but it might place you to never know by how much it will be that way, i.e., maybe $10.75 instead.
I would even advocate that in the US we require taxation to be handled that way too because you are right, most of our citizens can't do basic math, let alone in their heads, or even really care; but if the price tag had to be the taxed price and you then get a discount if you pay cash, it would be a far better situation. There has never been a better time to do this with digital price tags.
The inherent problem is that the likes of the masses are hard to organize, let alone corral and focus on a single thing and everyone thinks they are smarter than the average.
> especially in places like Europe where they’ve foolishly and enthusiastically started forcing everyone into digital payment
In Europe (or at least the EEA, but the UK and I think Switzerland have their own capping) card interchange is capped at, generally, 0.3%.
That does not apply universally and it mostly for various domestic payment processors of the very kind that should have also been implemented in the USA a long time ago, if the US government weren't so dark rotten and corrupt and had actually been responsive or even just representative of the people for the last 150 or so years.
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