Comment by Marha01
2 days ago
> So how exactly is Anthropic and OpenAI ever going to pay back the trillions that they plan on spending?
It's really simple: if they truly get to human-level AI (or even superhuman AI), then money and debts no longer matter, since our current economic system will be obsolete. They are betting everything on this outcome.
I don't know if they will manage to do it before their debts have to be repaid, but considering the rate of acceleration in the past few months, there is a non-trivial chance that they will, IMHO. We will see.
That’s like building F1 cars and thinking you will soon have a rocket to land on the moon.
LLM has nothing to do with AGI.
I would perhaps agree with you just a year ago. But now I am not so sure. It is clear that scaling up Transformers still leads to significant improvements, and they are now solving math conjectures and finding real vulnerabilites in software. We don't really know where the capability ceiling of the current approach is, and anyone telling you that we know it is lying to you.
> We don't really know where the capability ceiling of the current approach is
We do know, that the ceiling is below AGI. And it's not a matter of opinion - LLMs can not achieve AGI due to their design. Anyone telling you otherwise is lying to you.
And it doesn't matter how many or how severe bugs they can find, because it's not about what they produce, but how they produce it.
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That's assuming that human-level AI is a possibility with current approaches.
No need even for "human-level" per se. It just has to be useful enough that it upends the current economic order, which it's already well on the way into doing.
No, it's assuming there's a non-trivial chance that they will.
I'd assume we want at least human-level intelligence, but better than human-level _decision making_. ;)