Comment by numeri
13 hours ago
> new space is created
That seems to be the crux here. You think it will be, I (and a lot of other people) aren't sure it will. If new space for jobs are created, I am certain we'll be fine long term.
What do you think will happen if it isn't (I know you have strong evidence for and reasons to believe it will be, but just indulge the hypothetical)?
Yes that’s the crux of the risk - will new space be created
On one hand. We’ve never had a technological revolution that didn’t yield more jobs
On the other hand, Terminator
There is a theoretical limit, but we can't know when it will occur.
> We’ve never had a technological revolution that didn’t yield more jobs
a) How many technological revolutions do you count?
b) Of these, which directly created jobs vs in which did the job numbers eventually recover?
AI is different because "intelligence" is the last thing humans still do better than machines.
Which provider do you use for artificial compassion?
I can indulge the hypothetical and I appreciate your openness to engage in both sides.
I think as you stated, human nature and history is where I am looking at this from. People have a tendency to be unable to sit and do nothing for extended periods of time. I believe we are purpose driven but purpose is pretty loosely defined here.
Indulging the hypothetical (and arguably realistic in some circumstances) that AI replaces a tier of repeatable tasks I believe it would work from the bottom up. Tasks that are extremely repeatable would probably be gone 1:1 and it would be a sliding ratio as complexity increased where having human intervention as a backup becomes justifiable.
This would create a squeeze on the labor force which would bring up the very real and fair question of "How is it that I am unable to survive daily life when 100 - 200 years ago none of this automation / technology existed."
I think this could drive a sort of re-examining of what exists RE: a very inefficient and flawed system with a large amount of people possessing a lot of anxiety and time on their hands. It would be like the Eye of Sauron made up of those who were caught in the crossfire.
On the other side of the haves and have-nots I can imagine there being a very Harrison Bergeron style mindset of trying to popularize pacification until the next great innovation just solves itself.
On the extreme end, I just cannot imagine euthanasia, genocide, or population control schemes. It feels like we have come so far. How could it be possible we regress that far? I could imagine myself not wanting to live through any part of that. This seems like a very extreme and existential point to reach. I am trying to keep my thoughts pinned closer to biological and historical drivers.
I think we are hormone driven chemistry sets. I believe we respond to stimuli. I find it hard to believe anyone at any level could shut off that drive at such a massive scale and accurately predict the other side.
I imagine you're not from anywhere near former fascism or communism.
What historical evidence do we have to believe that these newfound capabilities are going to be distributed equitably?
Yeah definitely not fascist and I believe that is a control tactic not necessarily an equitability thing.
I don't think we have any evidence that anything will be done fairly. In fact the idea of Capitalism in a "fair system" has been objectively broken as incumbents apply pressure on free markets to suppress competition.
I think all forms have proved they can be broken where they no longer are "playing by the rules".
I was entertaining the hypothetical. I think the biggest unknown I feel which the article gently touches on is the unknown of how deeply this is trusted to make decisions that could be life-changing.
Imagine the danger of an AI model built to scan and understand a state or national level of policy that would be beneficial to society. Not only does that create a vector of manipulation to government that could be blindly trusted but it opens a cyber attack vector from other nation states.
I could see someone coming from a place of good without realizing that these functions are somewhat opaque without ceilings/floors which can increase deviation to elicit hallucinations.
Whether it is intentionally misused or a road to hell paved with good intentions it does feel treacherous. I do think there are many many democratizing aspects it offers but how do we stop mixing the baby and the bath water when we can't tell the difference.
> What do you think will happen if it isn't
Since such a thing has never happened, I doubt anyone, even scholars of history and anthropology, know.
Capitalism probably won't work in a world of ultra abundance though.