Comment by geraneum
14 hours ago
> Research suggests that in some parts of the United States, factory closures contribute to a rise in deaths from opioid overdoses.
It’s so cute some people think that the extent of mass displacement will be limited to what happens to the unemployed. Oh poor unemployed! Nope, pitchforks will be grabbed. It won’t be rosy. Maybe they dream about having killer robots to defend themselves, but imagine a few hundred million people getting angry within one election cycle.
"Everyone has a plan til' they get punched in the face." - Mike Tyson
Sadly, I agree, that's where this is all headed.
> imagine a few hundred million people getting angry within one election cycle
This isn't hard to imagine? We'll elect someone, they will put in place new policies. Maybe they will help, maybe they won't.
Nice thing about real democracies, you don't actually need pitchforks.
Said democracy does have to be real, though. If we're talking about that country between two oceans that waged armed conflicts almost constantly since its very inception, has supported or helped put in place straight-up dictatorships not that long ago, and sports one of the highest wealth inequality in the West, well... I'd think long and hard before I call that a real democracy.
Also: The US government is structured to put checks on democracy thereby ensuring wealth and power inequality. See: The Electoral College, The Senate, and even the Constitution itself among other examples.
Yeah, nobody likes the pitchforks but “maybe they won’t” is not really an option for hungry people.
> Nice thing about real democracies, you don't actually need pitchforks.
Democracy is not something inherent in any society. It’s a tool wielded by the people.
this is only true if people know their voices matter.
if their voices are overrun by the powerful, the pitchforks come back out.
We have also to consider what if their voices not only don't matter but are actively being suppressed. It's hard to start a revolution if who's in control can control communications and can preemptively identify people who are more likely to start dissent. Maybe this time we won't even have the slightest chance to revolt.
Found PG's alt account.
Can we please stop pretending any facet of this system works? Calling current day America a real democracy is like calling Kim Kardashian's ass real.
Words are funny. It is real, it's just not ..biological.
Ironically, by predicting the most chaotic outcome you're falling for the narrative that AI will transform the economy overnight, which is exactly what AI companies' marketing divisions want you to believe.
>More than 90 percent of executives report no effect of AI use on employment over the past three years, and 89 percent report no impact on labor productivity. Among the minority that do report effects, the results tilt slightly positive for productivity, with an estimated average boost of 0.29 percent. However, executives anticipate much larger effects going forward. They forecast that over the next three years, AI will increase labor productivity by 1.4 percent on average while reducing employment by 0.7 percent, implying a net output gain of roughly 0.8 percent. About two-thirds of the anticipated workforce reduction is expected to come from reduced hiring.
https://www.nber.org/digest/202605/global-evidence-business-...
A 1-2% increase in labor productivity year over year is typical for a mature economy in the absence of a new transformational technology. The 0.7% reduction in workforce is an optimistic prediction by a small minority of executives. Even if that happened across all industries (unlikely), an increase in unemployment from 4.1% to 4.8% over 3 years is hardly pitchfork territory.
Given the current evidence, I find it hard to imagine a realistic scenario where "a few hundred million people get angry within one election cycle". That might change if we see economy-wide 10% productivity gains sustained over a decade, but I'm not holding my breath.
Ironically, by predicting the most chaotic outcome you're falling for the narrative that AI will transform the economy overnight, which is exactly what AI companies' marketing divisions want you to believe.
You're using a rhetorical device to imply that they're "falling for" a narrative. "Falling for" only follows if that's why they are making the prediction; this construction doesn't allow that they may have come to this belief on their own.
Based on what evidence? The unemployment rate is very low, and has been for a long time. Why should we take your word for it when it blatantly contradicts real economic data?
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During the economic transformation in the former Soviet Bloc, entire industries disappeared, and pitchforks weren't grabbed. I saw it myself, growing up in a heavy industry city that quickly turned into a rust belt city.
IDK why so many people romanticize pauper riots and try to wish them into existence. In practice, as long as people don't outright starve, they don't become violent just over losing their jobs.
All the post-1989 wars east of the former Iron Curtain were triggered by nationalism. Not a single one by a class conflict.
> "IDK why so many people romanticize pauper riots and try to wish them into existence."
They think they will be they ones leading the riots (the precariat will defer to them because they are "smart" apparently?) instead of they themselves being the ones being swarmed by rioters for visibly being just a little too well off.
> During the economic transformation in the former Soviet Bloc, entire industries disappeared, and pitchforks weren't grabbed
Wouldn't it be easy to argue that this is because there was more a social safety net to prevent said starvation and by that point people were extremely cynical about revolutionary ideas in a way that is not at all comparable?
It's cathartic to feel that your views are correct but simply suppressed by the establishment. You don't simply have a political opinion, you are ultimately correct, and the true absolution of revolution will make your opinion manifest. My family is from a developing country so the particulars are different, but yes people don't just descend into violent revolution because they lose their jobs. Unemployment is indeed a factor in revolution but is one of many.
It's one of those unfortunate aspects of internet information silos where people repeat this phrase to each other but don't really contextualize their opinions in the greater body of history and political thought.
Additionally, I think a lot of people with this opinion don't realize the vast difference in material standards we have today and what was true in the age of Communist revolution and decolonialization. It's tempting to think of material standards as relative and I think inequality is indeed a destabilizing factor in socities, but minimum material standards are true in so much of the world today that I think a class-conscious revolution is much harder in most of the developed and developing world absent other external political forces (e.g. nationalism, decolonoialism, etc)
It’s so ironic to use Soviet Union as anecdote here considering what led to its birth.
The Soviet Union isn’t exactly an outcome I’d hope for? I like the democracy option better than the pitchfork one
Massive military defeat in WWI which destabilized Russia. If the Whites were better organized, the result could easily have been a very bigoted nationalist dictatorship instead.
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Judging from your username you were from a country that ended up integrated into the EU. Good for you. But in Russia you can draw a direct line between the economical collapse and drop in living standards of the 90s and the rise of Putin as the big man who will put an end to the disruption.
Indeed I wrote about this on my Substack:
https://komando1.substack.com/p/when-the-russians-wanted-com...
But this still wasn't case of pitchforks. It was "just" an election, and the Putin regime, for the next 10 years since his election, wasn't even particularly grim.
China’s surveillance state seems very successful at managing population emotions.
China has both carrot and stick. Living standards there have improved dramatically over the past few decades. Over here they use a smaller stick, but no carrot at all.
My sense from talking to people who’ve lived in both countries is that there’s also a perception that there’s at least a semblance of fairness in China, which can make it relatively more palatable. Chinese acquaintances are rather horrified by how, in the US, cops can use state surveillance systems to stalk women and get away with it and people regularly end up homeless due to medical bills.
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The size of the stick here is in direct proportion to your proximity to power.
The social credit system is regional, disjoint, and composed of a handful of various trackers. It can hardly be compared with public opinion.
Xinjiang is an exception; it is heavily publicly surveilled.
Internet censorship is strong. The public still has sway over government policy. When search terms are blocked, the public continues with euphemisms. The government is responsive to public opinion. The government does promote influencers with opinions favorable with CCP goals.
Chinese foreign policy is more dovish than public opinion, especially regarding Taiwan.
`Chinese foreign policy is more dovish than public opinion, especially regarding Taiwan.`
Dovish as in it will be annexed in the next decade and not next week?
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As opposed to the American surveillance state which is focused on enflaming emotions.
False equivalence. Maybe that’s what they fool themselves with. Salivating, looking at China, not understanding the massive upward social mobility in recent time there. Why stop at China, look at Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc.
Murdoch et al aren't that bad either.
Well they also at least give something back with infrastructure and general management of the country. None of that is happening in the US.
It's undeniable that Chinese transportation infrastructure is amazing, especially high-speed rail.
Compared with the United States, public health care is less available in China. Retirement pensions are an order of magnitude lower (even with PPP adjustment), hence their world-leading savings rate. Social mobility is lower: getting a permit to access social services such as schools in a new city is difficult. Youth unemployment was above 25% the last time it was published; it is no longer disclosed.
Rule of law is much less strong. Injustices committed by government officials towards citizens are unlikely to be addressed.
Housing costs to income ratios are an order of magnitude worse in cities with job opportunities.
The Chinese government has chosen to allocate capital toward industrial output at the expense of its citizens' welfare. It has succeeded at its goal. Perhaps in the future more capital allocation will be made to consumption. That is not the case at the current time.
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I think he's literally conceding your point by writing this essay. That there will be massive upheaval and yes maybe pitchforks if we don't get ahead of the problems.
nothing will happen. the '20s and '30s were much worse compared to today and nothing happened. Americans are much more complacent now than even then. People aspire to get rich, like on TikTok and "hustle culture," not to hang the rich.
What unemployment?? The unemployment rate right now is by all reasonable standards very low. Do you have any reason to believe unemployment will suddenly skyrocket? As a result of what factors? I hate to say it, but your analysis here seems based on vibes and not much else.