You can't make 1000+ trash robots just to produce one that works okay sometimes and somehow make the economics work from that, so I very much doubt it.
Edited to say "I think". I think that because I have been looking hard for developments in humanoid robotics generalization and new impressive demos and capabilities keep popping up all the time.
For example the recent Skild AI fairly general imitation capability. It really is a huge amount of effort on increasing the generality of humanoid robots going on now and a lot of demonstrations coming out showing off progress.
With the current trajectory there is no reason to think it will stop soon. There is a lot of motivation to innovate and train and it is pushing things forward.
If you're not looking for evidence of improvement, or rather looking for failure cases, then you're not going to see that trajectory.
And physical damage is lot more expensive to repair in vast majority of use cases. Have fun when your humanoid window washing robot punches through your window. Or any other such cases.
I think you're off by at least an order of magnitude.
So was ChatGPT back in 2021.
You can't make 1000+ trash robots just to produce one that works okay sometimes and somehow make the economics work from that, so I very much doubt it.
> The ChatGPT moment for humanoid robotics is coming within a year or two.
How long after that moment did the ChatGPT robots need to invent the time travel machine which let you come back to 2026 to confidently claim this?
Edited to say "I think". I think that because I have been looking hard for developments in humanoid robotics generalization and new impressive demos and capabilities keep popping up all the time.
For example the recent Skild AI fairly general imitation capability. It really is a huge amount of effort on increasing the generality of humanoid robots going on now and a lot of demonstrations coming out showing off progress.
With the current trajectory there is no reason to think it will stop soon. There is a lot of motivation to innovate and train and it is pushing things forward.
If you're not looking for evidence of improvement, or rather looking for failure cases, then you're not going to see that trajectory.
Robotics cost way more to produce and support, unlike software
And physical damage is lot more expensive to repair in vast majority of use cases. Have fun when your humanoid window washing robot punches through your window. Or any other such cases.
When a robot can figure out how to contort it's body to climb inside a machine to replace an encoder, I'll start to worry.