Comment by greenowl
17 hours ago
Maybe, maybe not. It's not unreasonable that these systems cap out at some point, or perhaps fizzle away entirely.
The businesses that create these systems are not profitable and run at a massive historical and go-forward loss.
New data centers required to operate these systems are facing increasing pushback at local levels. New construction is not guaranteed. Energy and power grid constraints exist as well.
Government regulation is way behind. What happens when (if) mass layoffs due to AI occur? How does the population react? Theoretically AI can be regulated out of significant progress, or outright existence for many purposes. At the end of the day, US and other prominent governments make the calls, not corporations.
For better or for worse, this technology isn't going away any more than search engines, smartphones, or social media have gone away.
Those technologies reached profitability relatively early, if not immediately.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Productivity_paradox
Computers never got profitable. They just made the alternative infeasible.
Also, if you believe Amazon accounting, e-commerce only very recently got somewhat profitable.
These inventions all stopped disrupting the world and just became a part of it. The question is whether LLMs are going to just take their quiet place, or profoundly change (or eliminate) humanity in a self-feeding frenzy towards singularity.
> It's not unreasonable that these systems cap out at some point, or perhaps fizzle away entirely.
Yeah, like computers and mobile phones did. Things that have utility, even if not immediate or initially obvious, don't fizzle out.
That's survivor bias to the extreme.