Let me ask you, have you noticed that all the major labs are releasing models very similar in gains and performance? How do you explain that other than juicing the max out of the current architecture and processes.
They have been releasing similar gains/performance for years now... Pretty much never has one company been dominant for a long time (except the initial GPT3/4 release I suppose. That period took a while for others to catch up)
Yeah - that's why I think they are basically squeezing the scaling laws and the current architecture with incremental innovations.
I expect they will continue optimizing and improving for the current use cases/benchmarks. But the core capabilities will stagnant, that's why they will be forced to slow down until another major breakthrough happens.
I personally don't think LLMs have any understanding of the world, nor any imagination or even agency. I think it got very good as recognizing patterns and shapes in human thinking, language and knowledge, but that's pretty much it.
The one where it’s infeasible that a company that needs to live up to a valuation of like 5% of US GDP but is still burning cash and has no moat would willingly decide to slow down the pace of development of their core technology
There is no need for a copy. If another can do most of what OpenAI/Anthropic can do at a fraction of the cost (like the Chinese models) then the moat evaporates.
I expect they are slowing down in an attempt to keep from having those models improve to the point where they can effectively escape unassisted into the wild.
Unless you’re making 3D models of apartments and oneshotting trivial games, I‘m not convinced Astra writes better code than Sol. I‘m way more often disappointed about Astra forgetting some aspect that Sol just nails.
Let me ask you, have you noticed that all the major labs are releasing models very similar in gains and performance? How do you explain that other than juicing the max out of the current architecture and processes.
They have been releasing similar gains/performance for years now... Pretty much never has one company been dominant for a long time (except the initial GPT3/4 release I suppose. That period took a while for others to catch up)
Yeah - that's why I think they are basically squeezing the scaling laws and the current architecture with incremental innovations.
I expect they will continue optimizing and improving for the current use cases/benchmarks. But the core capabilities will stagnant, that's why they will be forced to slow down until another major breakthrough happens.
I personally don't think LLMs have any understanding of the world, nor any imagination or even agency. I think it got very good as recognizing patterns and shapes in human thinking, language and knowledge, but that's pretty much it.
? "everyone is advancing but tied" is completely different than arguing we're at the top of an S curve
I think it's narrowing at the top.
The one where it’s infeasible that a company that needs to live up to a valuation of like 5% of US GDP but is still burning cash and has no moat would willingly decide to slow down the pace of development of their core technology
> has no moat
I would love to see someone try to escape with a copy of openai's raw unaligned base model
There is no need for a copy. If another can do most of what OpenAI/Anthropic can do at a fraction of the cost (like the Chinese models) then the moat evaporates.
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I expect they are slowing down in an attempt to keep from having those models improve to the point where they can effectively escape unassisted into the wild.
Unless you’re making 3D models of apartments and oneshotting trivial games, I‘m not convinced Astra writes better code than Sol. I‘m way more often disappointed about Astra forgetting some aspect that Sol just nails.
How long would it take for a team of 60 to replicate the software that operates a neobank? Serious question - I want serious responses pls ty.