Comment by fasterik
15 hours ago
I don't agree that the argument implies nationalization. Regulation would work if it slowed everyone down at the same rate, enough to mitigate the risks. The problem is that you need regulators who know what they're doing and strong international cooperation. If you regulate a fraction of the global market, you just create an incentive to shift development to other countries. Nationalization, being essentially the most heavy-handed form of regulation, faces the same problems and comes with its own risks as well.
We're talking about this like all of the bad incentives are created by market competition, but that's not really the case. Most of the incentives come from untapped value in the form of potential profits, strategic advantage, military superiority, etc. Corporations and governments want to capture this value for themselves, creating various types of competition. Dario's argument depends on the assumption that the primary risk comes from the pace of development and threats from the technology itself. That's probably where I disagree the most; I think the highest risk is rising authoritarianism and competition between nation states. Slowing down isn't really a solution to those problems.
I think this is the correct take. And until we have an AI Hiroshima it’ll be difficult to get the international community to work together. It’ll take rogue AI (or AI-powered group) disabling a significant world power before everyone comes to the table. Otherwise, it just looks like MAD and the equilibrium holding to the powers that be.
It wasn’t the shock of Little Boy that ended the war. That was just a final chapter of a 10+ year journey of horror, despair, and destruction, and the impact of Little Boy cannot be considered outside of that journey.
Europe had been destroyed by June 1945, and yet the empire of Japan continued to fight.
If that pattern holds, a single malicious AI substantially disabling a single world power won’t end the AI race. Participants don’t learn by the defeats of others.
If you’d like to apply a metaphor maybe the 10+ years of world war is more appropriate, after which basically every participant save one was exhausted.
No disagreement here; I felt countless smaller problems leading up to the final blow was implied.