Comment by reverius42
3 hours ago
Seems obvious to me, though, that you can't beat China by pausing when they don't, and China is not likely to coordinate.
3 hours ago
Seems obvious to me, though, that you can't beat China by pausing when they don't, and China is not likely to coordinate.
China might pretend to coordinate in public but you can assume their secret research labs are racing full speed ahead.
Mutually assured destruction has worked fine for 80 years, why stop now?
I don’t know if you’re being facetious, but last time I checked, the world had not been destroyed by glob thermonuclear war.
So yeah, it has worked.
While it's an extremely hard problem, it's not completely unsolvable because there are a finite number of GPUs on the planet capable of doing frontier model development, and they use a lot of power. The vast majority of them could be tracked. China and the US could agree to joint monitoring and they could each verify what ~95% of the other's compute power was up to.
A lab of researchers without compute isn't going to accomplish much, there is a huge physical footprint unlike bioweapons research. But, the political aspect is unsolved.
What a naive, ignorant comment. China is catching up fast on GPU fabrication. They're still a generation or two behind but they can just throw more hardware and electricity at the problem. This is not something that we could ever monitor effectively in a fascist state like China.
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