Comment by duhhhhh1212
8 hours ago
bruh what? Are we reading the same blog? Bryan says the responsibility is the person making the extraordinary claim. If tomorrow Jacob Coxon comes on CNN and says "Jacob Gold is an extinction risk to humanity". What are we supposed to do? Put you in a bunker and never let you see the light of day until someone proves otherwise?
If someone doesn't accept an extraordinary claim without evidence, that doesn't mean they are making an extraordinary claim.
There seem to be two extraordinary claims which lack evidence:
a) 10% existential risk
b) 0% existential risk
What's the evidence for there being an existential risk? We are provided scenarios which read like science fiction about RSI and ASI right around the corner, resulting in magic sounding technology that can do anything the person making the claim wants it to do, because it can just make itself smart enough in a short amount of time. But the person making the claim has to actually show how such a thing is possible in the real world, not just a story.
The clear and predictable power of AI is the evidence for existential risk. Even if we don't get RSI or ASI, there's a risk we'll automate our world, then it'll break and we'll starve, etc.
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(a) is an extraordinary claim, (b) is not an extraordinary claim.
There are very clear and plausible pathways from AI to human extinction level events, regardless of how small you think the probability is.
So yes, it very obviously is an extraordinary claim to say there is 0% existential risk.
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