Comment by addaon
9 hours ago
> How many customers do you expect to be running on Duo for the first year of its existence? I’d be surprised if it was >0.01% for anyone.
How do you figure? Assume the average Apple cell phone replacement cycle is somewhere between 3 and 4 years. At the longer end, you’d need the sell-through rate of the Duo compared to other phones to be less than 0.04% to hit your number. We know from the Mini and other phones that Apple tends to avoid designs that it expects to have less than a 5% sell rate, two orders of magnitude higher. Even if you assume they’re aiming for 5% of dollars instead of units, and you take into account the non-Apple market (which certainly should not be unit-weighted for folks thinking about app revenue), you’re off by well over an order of magnitude.
If he is off by an order of magnitude and it's 0.1% still no developer (unless a fanboy) should bother
Why? If you’re spending 2000 hours a year servicing your current customers, surely it’s worth 20 hours to add on 1%, even ignoring that that 1% is probably more valuable than your average customer, and the halo effect of giving a good experience to existing users migrating devices.
Although maybe they should because someone willing to buy a $2000 phone on launch is probably more willing to buy a lot more things versus someone who keeps phones a long time.
What does being a ‘fanboy’ mean in this context?