Comment by wewewedxfgdf
2 hours ago
I find it very hard to understand the things these AI CEO's say.
He will probably get up there and say his companies products will destroy every citizen of their countries.
2 hours ago
I find it very hard to understand the things these AI CEO's say.
He will probably get up there and say his companies products will destroy every citizen of their countries.
People will say it's marketing but I find Occam's Razor highly favors the theory "they are true believers in AGI/ASI"
This seems especially true for Anthropic employees.
Genuinely, what makes people not believe in coming AGI? I read quite a lot on hackernews but never encounter a strong post/comment against it, apart from the „what is marketing“ discussion. Maybe people don’t bother because everyone is in their trenches, tough I don’t understand how people do not see the AGI coming. What kind of doom, if any, will befall is something different of course. I don’t want to believe there will be AGI in the next 5 years, but it sure is hard not to!
I think it's because people have different ideas of AGI. Some only expect general intelligence, while others also require weird speculative ideas, such as rapid self-improvement.
Right now, what seems to be missing from general intelligence is mostly the ability to learn from experience and continue operating in a useful way well beyond context window size. That might already be technically feasible, but probably not in a cost-effective way.
What does AGI mean is probably the sticking point for most. I'm inclined to call it AGI if they can create something currently matching SOTA where there is no difference between training and inference time, i.e. it can continuously learn. Without the model collapsing.
I don’t believe AI progress is a linear line that ends in “AGI”. I think the current way we create LLMs will be improved, and improved, and improved. But an LLM at its core is a predictive chain, not general intelligence.
2 replies →
Wouldn’t Occam’s razor say that the people speaking are highly motivated to continue being paid? Relying on their fear of future outcomes seems to be misplaced to judge the honesty of their statements.
> continue being paid
What I mean by Occam's Razor:
There are many assumptions that need to be true to link "they say they're terrified of AI" to "they get paid more / longer", in both their own minds and everyone else's. It's a bit of 4D chess that could go their way, but also could go 100 different ways.
In contrast, linking "they say it" to "they believe it" is simple.
1 reply →
Occam’s razor doesn’t often explain not taking people for their worst and assuming a conspiracy theory
My product is so powerful, you all need to pay me more money to keep it safe for you.
Shocking publicity is good publicity. And "my product is so potent it will probably destroy you." I think I´ve heard it from drug dealers as well.
Why are we even discussing this here? Altman works in the alchemy sector, not the tech sector.
As long as a post isn't sbout politics– oh wait.
Smells of, "You can't handle my potions. They're too strong for you."[1]
1. https://genius.com/Justin-kuritzkes-potion-seller-annotated
It’s a great way to sign up young men for military duty too, sell it to them like it’s something exciting and awesome… and they can’t handle it.