Comment by echelon
3 days ago
When our spot instances go away and don't come back, that's a sign that there's not enough capacity.
There is more demand for compute than there is supply, and that demand is going up.
Look at all of the things that have been and are being automated and realize that we're year 6 into a hundred year journey.
Look around you at all the things that aren't automated. They will be.
The world you grew up in won't be here for much longer. We're going through a transformation even more dramatic than the industrial revolution. There were no airplanes and then we landed on the moon.
Edit: downvotes as expected, but I'm shocked that a bunch of smart people at HN aren't taking the bet where this leads to a complete upending of the status quo. The holdout crowd needs to dream bigger.
The models are solving Millennium Prize problems, finding novel biological pathways our scientists can't see, putting every single software engineer out of the job of "coding by hand", and doing the same to designers, marketers, filmmakers, and 3D artists who used to have to operate pixel by pixel / photon by photon.
Everything is going to be AI soon.
That's the usual bait and switch though. Very few people are saying AI the statistical software is going away. What people are dubious of is the commercialisation model of building a butt ton of data centres to serve massive general models by two heavily subsidised VC companies even as industry gets more mature and fickle as they get their heads around using it to solve problems and it goes onto Opex budgets. I think this is more like the early days of cloud which finished in "software built around clouds" rather than "everyone spins up their own fleet of servers for everything". Obviously the current investment levels need everyone to run their own fleet of Ralph looping agents on frontier models so that's what's marketed as the smart thing to do.
I think firms will eventually move toward sovereign protected compute. It’s inevitable.
Govt’s are waiting for this stuff to mature and shake out. USA can’t be trusted anymore.
A lot of government appendages are still waiting for the dust to settle on this new fangled cloud computing thing in fairness. I don't think it's some deep masterplan
> I'm shocked that a bunch of smart people at HN aren't taking the bet where this leads to a complete upending of the status quo.
If your take on the abilities of AI is correct, we aren't talking about upending the status quo, we're talking about an ELE for the human race.
There's a huge gap between what's being described in that comment and an "extinction level event" is that's what ELE means.
What's being talked about is a massive extension of human capability, into the intellectual sphere rather than the physical environment. The atom bomb had a clear way to get to extinction, a sudden chain reaction that leads to collapse of the entire biome.
The only way AI gets there is something like control of the nuclear weapons on all sides and that control becoming suicidal. Every other major event leads to at most civilization collapse, after which I assume we will have some sort of Butlerian Jihad restrictions on getting into the same situation.
But, I would love to know what I'm missing here, if ELE has clearer routes!!
> The only way AI gets there is something like control of the nuclear weapons on all sides and that control becoming suicidal.
Not the way I was thinking off; I was thinking more along the lines of brain atrophy until humans are helpless (maybe 2 complete generations of humans).
And that's a short extinction; the KT extinction took place over thousands of years. If, 1000 years from now, we are finally at the place described in "The Machine Stops", only then will an observer be able to decide that we don't have the necessary critical mass of intelligent humans anymore.
Humans got to be the apex predator simply on intelligence alone. It's possible that without thinking ability we'd go extinct.
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AI won’t even need to take control of nuclear weapons, it just needs to have a random (or maybe strategic? Hmmmm!) hallucination: https://arstechnica.com/ai/2026/09/report-us-almost-boarded-...
AI sucks or it's an "extinction level event".
Crazy times.
On HN there are a lot of people who truly believe that this whole thing is hype and the bubble will burst and things will go back to how it was before.
The real answer to “how many data centers do we need” is hard. Anyone giving confident answers to this should be suspicious.
The easy type of answer you get from those kind of people will always be “we are building too much”. They’d have said that 3 years back and have no shame in admitting it.
The thing is, you can overestimate or underestimate. Both have cons. The people sincerely believing this is all hype will always underestimate because all their epistemic muscle haven’t been used.
To be charitable to your hypothetical HN naysayers, isn't the question more like "how many more data centers do we need right now?" as well as "why is the answer a shitton for all these guys?". It doesn't really feel like this is a debate about speculation or the quantitative "too much" of it, but more of the "why at all?"
It just seems like the AI guys could easily win this debate if they could just articulate the why of it beyond just the near-parodic "everything will be AI in the future!". Like why not be a positive articulator and defender of what the extreme influx of datacenters will bring to the people? Don't you think that would be at least a stronger argument to make here? Why police the ideology or scare people with your position when you could, I don't know, win their hearts and minds?
Isn't that why you (presumably) like AI? Because it brings good things to people?
The people who say it is a bubble say "Once it pops, we will get major recession and everyone will suffer. We are already im fascist -autoritarian phase and economic hardship will make it worst."
> They’d have said that 3 years back and have no shame in admitting it.
3 years back, we had strong push for absolutely unprepared AI into areas where it sux. All the while onslaught of lies about its capabilities and hype.
In the meantime we had "artists are all obsolete suckers hahaha" and "humans are obsolete" and "AI will raise your kids so that you dont have to interact with them".
And we had "we the AI company will destroy us" as if it was a good thing.
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