← Back to context

Comment by echelon

3 days ago

> A de-facto dictatorship.

It's a spectrum, not a binary. We're really far from the "packing bags and leaving the country" end where you're a slave to the state. America is nothing like an Iran or China where we have no power and no rights to overturn the state.

Let's see if any of these petty games helps Trump with midterms. I highly doubt it. Kalshi is already calling it a double win for Democrats.

The economic impact of the Iran War looks like it really cost Trump everything. And it's funny because he always campaigned on not getting into wars.

19 comments

echelon

Reply
someonebaggy  3 days ago

China doesn't seem that bad in most respects either. Only in freedom of speech, and resulting internet censorship, but in quality of life and in productivity they seem to be thoroughly pwning the USA.

ceejayoz  3 days ago

> Kalshi is already calling it a double win for Democrats.

It's quite common for Kalshi bets to go from <1% to 100% chance in minutes when news breaks. "Prediction markets" is almost Orwellian in its inaccuracy.

  • someonebaggy  3 days ago

    If that's the case you should really buy that <1%. You have a 50% chance of 100xing your money.

    • ceejayoz  3 days ago

      That would require these to be predictable.

      Which is the precise problem with the "prediction" markets writ large. Some things just... aren't.

      2 replies →

patcon  3 days ago

> We're really far from the packing bags and leaving the country end.

Some of my American friends in Canada have taken in American friends who left so quick they didn't have a long-term place to land yet. Whether you have packed your bags and left, that depends who you are. It's not a flood, but an exodus has begun amongst those whose lives have been disrupted: academics, trans, queer, etc