Comment by microtonal
2 days ago
The US (or Trump) is the bigger threat because it is currently actively destroying the rule-based world order, which introduces exactly the lawlessness, chaotic times that opens the window for Iran and Russia to 'do business'. Plus it is destroying the its alliances, which were part of keeping the equilibrium between power blocks in tact.
One can only hope that another power that cares about rules fills the void.
> One can only hope that another power that cares about rules fills the void.
There isn't one. You've got the US or nobody at this point, unfortunately.
> The US (or Trump) is the bigger threat because it is currently actively destroying the rule-based world order, which introduces exactly the lawlessness, chaotic times that opens the window for Iran and Russia to 'do business'.
Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 when Trump wasn't president. Iran attacked Israel and kicked off a new and worse round of fighting in 2023 when Trump was also not president - the war today is just a continuation of that latest round.
While he has done some damage to the alliance by being a jackoff he also forced Europe to spend more which was required for defense. Europe also made itself dependent on Russian oil and gas, even recently France un-sanctioned some Russian billionaires and is making some awful decisions too.
There isn't one. You've got the US or nobody at this point, unfortunately.
Your belief in US exceptionalism is interesting. Even more so, because it is so obvious that the power that will soon overtake the US economically is very likely to fill that void. But they will also get all the benefits of that role and the US will slowly lose them.
In fact, they have already been stepping in the US' former shoes. Some EU leaders mentioned to Zelensky that the only reason that Russia hasn't used nukes against Ukraine is because China said 'no'. In better (depending on perspective) times, it would have been the US as its role of world leader/police to enforce such implicit rules.
It is true that China is currently supporting Russia, but it's mostly of their interest to drain NATO and increase their power over Eurasia. Well, thanks to Trump they proceeding very fast. Or as the Chinese like to say "Trump the nation builder".
> Your belief in US exceptionalism is interesting.
It’s easy to confuse “this is how I think the world works or is shaping up to work” with a view of American Exceptionalism, but my comments have less to do with some mythical concept that Americans are the best people or something and instead just my own analysis of trends and shapes in the world.
> China
There are a couple of broad problems with your view that China is going to replace the US, uphold global institutions, maintain freedom of navigation of the seas, and such.
The first problem is they simply don’t want to. Most China policy experts that I’ve read (I don’t have a specific source at hand but read a lot of papers - if I think of a good one I’ll post it here) agree that while China certainly wants to continue to become a major player on the world stage, they are not all that interested in usurping America’s current role. It costs a lot of money, the US does it partly because of the petrodollar system (which China also does not want or need to attempt to usurp since they are an export-oriented economy), and in taking on this role you also take on the baggage like having to go to war to maintain the system. China lacks the desire and ability to do these things.
Second, as you point out, China supports Russia as it prosecuted its war against Ukraine and Chinese economic activity has created a lot of consternation and distrust in Europe at least amongst the political class. European citizens are slow like Americans were to realize the problems and trade offs but they will soon. But the EU and Germany in particular are taking policy action now which the Chinese are not too happy about.
Pinning this all on Trump is immature. He’s only been president going on 2 years. It’s a little egotistical I might add to suggest that if not for Trump China would somehow not be full-steam ahead with their plans, whatever they are. China does what China wants just like other major powers do. They would build and do so fast regardless of what the Americans have done.
Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014.
True, under Obama, but I think that's materially different in size and scope.
Why didn't Europe go to war with Russia then or start building military forces to deter another Russian war in Europe once Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014? Russia actually invaded them I believe a long time ago in the 1920s or 1940s under the authoritarian and evil communist regime.
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