Comment by microtonal
2 days ago
There isn't one. You've got the US or nobody at this point, unfortunately.
Your belief in US exceptionalism is interesting. Even more so, because it is so obvious that the power that will soon overtake the US economically is very likely to fill that void. But they will also get all the benefits of that role and the US will slowly lose them.
In fact, they have already been stepping in the US' former shoes. Some EU leaders mentioned to Zelensky that the only reason that Russia hasn't used nukes against Ukraine is because China said 'no'. In better (depending on perspective) times, it would have been the US as its role of world leader/police to enforce such implicit rules.
It is true that China is currently supporting Russia, but it's mostly of their interest to drain NATO and increase their power over Eurasia. Well, thanks to Trump they proceeding very fast. Or as the Chinese like to say "Trump the nation builder".
> Your belief in US exceptionalism is interesting.
It’s easy to confuse “this is how I think the world works or is shaping up to work” with a view of American Exceptionalism, but my comments have less to do with some mythical concept that Americans are the best people or something and instead just my own analysis of trends and shapes in the world.
> China
There are a couple of broad problems with your view that China is going to replace the US, uphold global institutions, maintain freedom of navigation of the seas, and such.
The first problem is they simply don’t want to. Most China policy experts that I’ve read (I don’t have a specific source at hand but read a lot of papers - if I think of a good one I’ll post it here) agree that while China certainly wants to continue to become a major player on the world stage, they are not all that interested in usurping America’s current role. It costs a lot of money, the US does it partly because of the petrodollar system (which China also does not want or need to attempt to usurp since they are an export-oriented economy), and in taking on this role you also take on the baggage like having to go to war to maintain the system. China lacks the desire and ability to do these things.
Second, as you point out, China supports Russia as it prosecuted its war against Ukraine and Chinese economic activity has created a lot of consternation and distrust in Europe at least amongst the political class. European citizens are slow like Americans were to realize the problems and trade offs but they will soon. But the EU and Germany in particular are taking policy action now which the Chinese are not too happy about.
Pinning this all on Trump is immature. He’s only been president going on 2 years. It’s a little egotistical I might add to suggest that if not for Trump China would somehow not be full-steam ahead with their plans, whatever they are. China does what China wants just like other major powers do. They would build and do so fast regardless of what the Americans have done.