Comment by toyg
3 hours ago
I think this comment encapsulates the fundamental state of AI at the moment.
The industry believes very strongly that this simulation of methodology is basically as good as the real thing (or at least "good enough" in most cases).
This belief is the fault line between the bullish and the bearish; it requires a leap of faith that not everyone is willing or capable of taking.
Every forecast question we ask has a verifiable outcome. We then score it based on what actually happens in reality and create a track record for all of it. In typical analysis, nothing is scored, and no one goes back and checks if it was right or wrong, but we do - whether we're scoring humans in human forecasting exercises, or seeing how AI does.