Comment by chinathrow
2 hours ago
If they believe it, they can stop. All of them. There's no sign though that any pacing/slowdown or whatever is in place, zero.
2 hours ago
If they believe it, they can stop. All of them. There's no sign though that any pacing/slowdown or whatever is in place, zero.
OpenAI claims to have paused the training of their ”most capable” models: https://apnews.com/article/ai-openai-anthropic-agents-rogue-...
Of course I am not making an argument for them being honest as there could be entirely other reasons to a pause (like financial ones). Just pointing out ”no signs of pacing” is not true
I don't think that's how the market works. Anti-slavery regulation didn't stop slavery either, just moved it abroad. Same for trash handling regulations, it's just shipped abroad. Falling behind on useful AI capability is obviously not in the interest of anyone, so either all players coordinate, or an arms race towards ??? it is.
It may very well be self serving what they're saying, but that doesn't mean it isn't simultaneously true.
> I don't think that's how the market works
I think you're sort of right, but then I'd have found it very strange / deeply suspicious, if during the time of slavery being legal, advocates of abolitionism were practicing slave-owners.
If you think AI is going to destroy humanity, it still feels absolutely crazy to leap to "well I might as well be the one to profit from destroying humanity".
Quick search does suggest to me that a number of - even prominent - abolitionists were slave owners, but I'll be honest, the topic is hardly my specialty.
As for the other point, crazy, cynical, and even unethical as it may come off, it is hardly inconsistent with how people generally behave when met with hard limits (i.e. making the most of what's available, and approximating the desired state if that is unattainable). This is just a variation on the same.
Something could be said about "what if they're mistaken", but if all players are making a mistake, then that makes little practical difference; it may as well be real.
> Falling behind on useful AI capability is obviously not in the interest of anyone
Hence the argument that they're either full of shit, or psychopaths who need to be stopped at all costs.
There was a NYT piece about this recently. They are believers in a millennialist cult in which the arrival of an omnipotent machine-god is thought inevitable, and the only question is whether it will be "aligned" (good) or "misaligned" (evil).
They are the good heroes racing to make sure they bring forth the Aligned God because if they fail, surely the bad people will raise the Misaligned Devil.
Ref w/gift link https://x.com/sapinker/status/2096236079477096630
The only thing that can stop a bad guy with a god is a good guy with a god.
This cult stuff was tired in 2010 (hey, at least back then there was One True Leader!) and not any less tired now.
I'm not sure how else we are to interpret the behavior of the AI doomers & the AI developers (who are frequently the same people)
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