Comment by maltalex
2 hours ago
It's hard to say anything about the actual financials with the main players being private companies.
However, we know that users frequently switch models/providers, and that models stay relevant for (increasingly) short periods release. I don't know what the training costs are, but I bet they're very substantial.
They would recover the training cost eventually if they stop training, but they have all that CapEx that they can't flood the market with without another high volume buyer. Look for a huge push for another use-case of high end compute that coincides with a pause on frontier models.
> They would recover the training cost eventually if they stop training
"if they stop training" is exactly the point I'm making. They can't stop training if the competition is still training.
It's a very astute point and is the most plausible explanation for the push for a moratorium