Comment by noduerme

Just having a model that's predictably biased the wrong way when other models have already priced in the same things is pretty good. I mean, you have to look at where your model has no edge and figure out if it does have edges that the other ones are missing.

Coming at this from baseball, where the art is really knowing when not to take a game based on the line; usually if what you predict lines up too closely with Vegas, your edge is gone. (Hand-written A-life/evolutionary algorithm model of competing baseball equations that I've been refining for years, picks lately filtered through AI to isolate which ones fall into bands that are worth risking money on).