Comment by my-huge-pony
4 days ago
>Today too, after western proclamation of Ukrainian victory for the last 3+ years, it is clear that Ukraine is facing defeat and cannot win
It was equally clear - also to me - that Ukraine is facing defeat in two or three days after the start of large scale invasion. And yet here we are, three years later.
They're doing great. Even if they surrendered today, they exceeded my initial expectations like 300 times already.
> They're doing great.
They've lost around 20% of their territory with no hope of getting it back because they don't have the required number (or armaments) to wage a proper counter offensive. They've lost around 1/4th of their armed force personnels and are now earning the ire of their citizens who are being forcefully conscripted to fight a war they don't want to fight. Huge number of their citizens have migrated to other countries. Their economy is totally devastated. They cannot re-build their country without the mercy, charity and exploitation of foreign powers. As the war drags on, they are getting to the point of no return from where they will not be able to recover from this destruction of population, territorial geopolitics, economy ...
Sure, those who hate the Russians can enjoy how much the war costs them and weakens them. But only racist Europeans have a vested interest in cheering Ukraine's leader to keep fighting an unwinnable war, while they cleverly stay out of it, because they don't care about Ukraine too - Slavs fighting Slavs is good politics for them.
> They've lost around 20% of their territory with no hope of getting it back.
I don't think that's the winning end game for Ukraine, but I also don't see there being a realistic winning end game.
One scenario would be that Russia f..ks of with that 20% taken and calls it a success (though strategically it is an enormous blunder), like they did in Finland and leaves Ukraine alone after that -- but is this realistic to happen?
Or Russia collapses internally and Ukraine does take back all the theritory.
Or the world steps in and secures a lasting peace for Ukraine.
Or Russia realizes Ukraine will outlast it because of external support and realizes how stupid and lose-lose this war is.
Or Ukraine collapses and Russia takes an even larger chunk and installs a puppet regime in Kiev.
But Russia seems unwilling to fuck off and call it quits because it's backed by China and has extended its influence in the USA and EU so it bets it can outlast Ukraine.