>Today too, after western proclamation of Ukrainian victory for the last 3+ years, it is clear that Ukraine is facing defeat and cannot win
It was equally clear - also to me - that Ukraine is facing defeat in two or three days after the start of large scale invasion. And yet here we are, three years later.
They're doing great. Even if they surrendered today, they exceeded my initial expectations like 300 times already.
They've lost around 20% of their territory with no hope of getting it back because they don't have the required number (or armaments) to wage a proper counter offensive. They've lost around 1/4th of their armed force personnels and are now earning the ire of their citizens who are being forcefully conscripted to fight a war they don't want to fight. Huge number of their citizens have migrated to other countries. Their economy is totally devastated. They cannot re-build their country without the mercy, charity and exploitation of foreign powers. As the war drags on, they are getting to the point of no return from where they will not be able to recover from this destruction of population, territorial geopolitics, economy ...
Sure, those who hate the Russians can enjoy how much the war costs them and weakens them. But only racist Europeans have a vested interest in cheering Ukraine's leader to keep fighting an unwinnable war, while they cleverly stay out of it, because they don't care about Ukraine too - Slavs fighting Slavs is good politics for them.
> They've lost around 20% of their territory with no hope of getting it back.
I don't think that's the winning end game for Ukraine, but I also don't see there being a realistic winning end game.
One scenario would be that Russia f..ks of with that 20% taken and calls it a success (though strategically it is an enormous blunder), like they did in Finland and leaves Ukraine alone after that -- but is this realistic to happen?
Or Russia collapses internally and Ukraine does take back all the theritory.
Or the world steps in and secures a lasting peace for Ukraine.
Or Russia realizes Ukraine will outlast it because of external support and realizes how stupid and lose-lose this war is.
Or Ukraine collapses and Russia takes an even larger chunk and installs a puppet regime in Kiev.
But Russia seems unwilling to fuck off and call it quits because it's backed by China and has extended its influence in the USA and EU so it bets it can outlast Ukraine.
In WWII, it took the USSR 14 months to fight against Germany all through Ukraine, for about 1.4 million killed. The current Russian war against Ukraine is in its 56th month, losses are ~0.6 million killed and Russia holds about 19% of Ukraine, having gained 0.3% over the past year with ~140k killed.
The numbers speak for themselves on who's winning and who's losing the war.
> ... having gained 0.3% over the past year with ~140k killed.
Don't forget, against a NATO trained, NATO armed, NATO supported and NATO financed army.
Also, if one assumes that capturing territory is their only military goal, that does sound bad. It isn't though, right? With Ukraine, their major goal is to ensure that it remains a neutral state whose army and territory can't be used to economically or militarily threaten Russia ever. And their military goals have focused on this task - dismembering the country (which, as you pointed, they have done so by capturing around 20% of its territory, with maybe another 5% still to be occupied?), destroying their economic infrastructure (the captured territory had an impact on Ukraine's GDP loss, 75-80% of Ukraine's energy infrastructure has already been decimated, and their only port was targeted this year - if the war continues, Russia plans to capture Odessa too and convert Ukraine into a land-locked country), destroying Ukraine's military infrastructure (Russia has destroyed most of Ukraine's local missile and drone manufacturing units this year), and by destroying Ukraine's army through attritional warfare (nearly a quarter of Ukraine's army has been killed or injured - sure, way less than that of Russia, but unlike Russia Ukraine can't afford to lose its people).
(In other words, Russia is in no hurry to capture the remaining 4-5% of territory it seeks, because Ukraine will not stop fighting even after that is captured, and dragging the war helps Russia ensure that it can meet its other military goals too).
But ofcourse, why should Europeans care if Ukraine is being destroyed, as long as they kill as many Russians as possible?
> Russia is in no hurry to capture the remaining 4-5%.
The grapes are sour.
Russia is absolutely in a hurry because the war is hurting it tremendously, it simply is unable to do so at the moment, but it hopes it can undermine Ukraine's external support, which is indeed going much better than its campaign on the ukrainian front.
> Don't forget, against a NATO trained, NATO armed, NATO supported and NATO financed army.
The tendency among Russian apologists to belittle Ukraine at every opportunity and deny its independence is a defining trait, isn't it. The credit for keeping the Russian invaders at bay goes to Ukrainian drone manufacturers and drone crews, who are responsible for about 80% of all battlefield deaths. NATO countries have neither comparable expertise nor gear.
> Russia has destroyed most of Ukraine's local missile and drone manufacturing units this year
"Mostly" sounds modestly, if we take into account that Russia claims to have destroyed Ukrainian air force about three times over, yet Ukrainian MIGs keep flying. Likewise, the remaining drone manufacturers must be working overtime then, because the monthly Russian casualties in September were the highest of 2026, climbing from 32k in January to 46k in September. There are early reports that at least some Russian frontline units are no longer receiving reinforcements as they did before, because the people allocated for this year have been expended and there is no-one left to replace them. Earlier this year, Ukraine estimated that the breaking point would be somewhere around 50k casualties per month.
> With Ukraine, their major goal is to ensure that it remains a neutral state whose army and territory can't be used to economically or militarily threaten Russia ever.
The only place where I see such narratives besides the dead comments on HN is Russian state TV. Elsewhere, even among the Russian domestic experts, taking these propaganda narratives seriously is a quick way to discredit oneself. Hitler said that he invaded Poland to break Anglo-French encirclement of Germany and secure the country against aggression, yet we don't take such nonsense seriously, do we?
>Today too, after western proclamation of Ukrainian victory for the last 3+ years, it is clear that Ukraine is facing defeat and cannot win
It was equally clear - also to me - that Ukraine is facing defeat in two or three days after the start of large scale invasion. And yet here we are, three years later.
They're doing great. Even if they surrendered today, they exceeded my initial expectations like 300 times already.
> They're doing great.
They've lost around 20% of their territory with no hope of getting it back because they don't have the required number (or armaments) to wage a proper counter offensive. They've lost around 1/4th of their armed force personnels and are now earning the ire of their citizens who are being forcefully conscripted to fight a war they don't want to fight. Huge number of their citizens have migrated to other countries. Their economy is totally devastated. They cannot re-build their country without the mercy, charity and exploitation of foreign powers. As the war drags on, they are getting to the point of no return from where they will not be able to recover from this destruction of population, territorial geopolitics, economy ...
Sure, those who hate the Russians can enjoy how much the war costs them and weakens them. But only racist Europeans have a vested interest in cheering Ukraine's leader to keep fighting an unwinnable war, while they cleverly stay out of it, because they don't care about Ukraine too - Slavs fighting Slavs is good politics for them.
> They've lost around 20% of their territory with no hope of getting it back.
I don't think that's the winning end game for Ukraine, but I also don't see there being a realistic winning end game.
One scenario would be that Russia f..ks of with that 20% taken and calls it a success (though strategically it is an enormous blunder), like they did in Finland and leaves Ukraine alone after that -- but is this realistic to happen?
Or Russia collapses internally and Ukraine does take back all the theritory.
Or the world steps in and secures a lasting peace for Ukraine.
Or Russia realizes Ukraine will outlast it because of external support and realizes how stupid and lose-lose this war is.
Or Ukraine collapses and Russia takes an even larger chunk and installs a puppet regime in Kiev.
But Russia seems unwilling to fuck off and call it quits because it's backed by China and has extended its influence in the USA and EU so it bets it can outlast Ukraine.
In WWII, it took the USSR 14 months to fight against Germany all through Ukraine, for about 1.4 million killed. The current Russian war against Ukraine is in its 56th month, losses are ~0.6 million killed and Russia holds about 19% of Ukraine, having gained 0.3% over the past year with ~140k killed.
The numbers speak for themselves on who's winning and who's losing the war.
> ... having gained 0.3% over the past year with ~140k killed.
Don't forget, against a NATO trained, NATO armed, NATO supported and NATO financed army.
Also, if one assumes that capturing territory is their only military goal, that does sound bad. It isn't though, right? With Ukraine, their major goal is to ensure that it remains a neutral state whose army and territory can't be used to economically or militarily threaten Russia ever. And their military goals have focused on this task - dismembering the country (which, as you pointed, they have done so by capturing around 20% of its territory, with maybe another 5% still to be occupied?), destroying their economic infrastructure (the captured territory had an impact on Ukraine's GDP loss, 75-80% of Ukraine's energy infrastructure has already been decimated, and their only port was targeted this year - if the war continues, Russia plans to capture Odessa too and convert Ukraine into a land-locked country), destroying Ukraine's military infrastructure (Russia has destroyed most of Ukraine's local missile and drone manufacturing units this year), and by destroying Ukraine's army through attritional warfare (nearly a quarter of Ukraine's army has been killed or injured - sure, way less than that of Russia, but unlike Russia Ukraine can't afford to lose its people).
(In other words, Russia is in no hurry to capture the remaining 4-5% of territory it seeks, because Ukraine will not stop fighting even after that is captured, and dragging the war helps Russia ensure that it can meet its other military goals too).
But ofcourse, why should Europeans care if Ukraine is being destroyed, as long as they kill as many Russians as possible?
> Russia is in no hurry to capture the remaining 4-5%.
The grapes are sour.
Russia is absolutely in a hurry because the war is hurting it tremendously, it simply is unable to do so at the moment, but it hopes it can undermine Ukraine's external support, which is indeed going much better than its campaign on the ukrainian front.
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The tendency among Russian apologists to belittle Ukraine at every opportunity and deny its independence is a defining trait, isn't it. The credit for keeping the Russian invaders at bay goes to Ukrainian drone manufacturers and drone crews, who are responsible for about 80% of all battlefield deaths. NATO countries have neither comparable expertise nor gear.
"Mostly" sounds modestly, if we take into account that Russia claims to have destroyed Ukrainian air force about three times over, yet Ukrainian MIGs keep flying. Likewise, the remaining drone manufacturers must be working overtime then, because the monthly Russian casualties in September were the highest of 2026, climbing from 32k in January to 46k in September. There are early reports that at least some Russian frontline units are no longer receiving reinforcements as they did before, because the people allocated for this year have been expended and there is no-one left to replace them. Earlier this year, Ukraine estimated that the breaking point would be somewhere around 50k casualties per month.
The only place where I see such narratives besides the dead comments on HN is Russian state TV. Elsewhere, even among the Russian domestic experts, taking these propaganda narratives seriously is a quick way to discredit oneself. Hitler said that he invaded Poland to break Anglo-French encirclement of Germany and secure the country against aggression, yet we don't take such nonsense seriously, do we?
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