Comment by mopsi
4 days ago
In WWII, it took the USSR 14 months to fight against Germany all through Ukraine, for about 1.4 million killed. The current Russian war against Ukraine is in its 56th month, losses are ~0.6 million killed and Russia holds about 19% of Ukraine, having gained 0.3% over the past year with ~140k killed.
The numbers speak for themselves on who's winning and who's losing the war.
> ... having gained 0.3% over the past year with ~140k killed.
Don't forget, against a NATO trained, NATO armed, NATO supported and NATO financed army.
Also, if one assumes that capturing territory is their only military goal, that does sound bad. It isn't though, right? With Ukraine, their major goal is to ensure that it remains a neutral state whose army and territory can't be used to economically or militarily threaten Russia ever. And their military goals have focused on this task - dismembering the country (which, as you pointed, they have done so by capturing around 20% of its territory, with maybe another 5% still to be occupied?), destroying their economic infrastructure (the captured territory had an impact on Ukraine's GDP loss, 75-80% of Ukraine's energy infrastructure has already been decimated, and their only port was targeted this year - if the war continues, Russia plans to capture Odessa too and convert Ukraine into a land-locked country), destroying Ukraine's military infrastructure (Russia has destroyed most of Ukraine's local missile and drone manufacturing units this year), and by destroying Ukraine's army through attritional warfare (nearly a quarter of Ukraine's army has been killed or injured - sure, way less than that of Russia, but unlike Russia Ukraine can't afford to lose its people).
(In other words, Russia is in no hurry to capture the remaining 4-5% of territory it seeks, because Ukraine will not stop fighting even after that is captured, and dragging the war helps Russia ensure that it can meet its other military goals too).
But ofcourse, why should Europeans care if Ukraine is being destroyed, as long as they kill as many Russians as possible?
> Russia is in no hurry to capture the remaining 4-5%.
The grapes are sour.
Russia is absolutely in a hurry because the war is hurting it tremendously, it simply is unable to do so at the moment, but it hopes it can undermine Ukraine's external support, which is indeed going much better than its campaign on the ukrainian front.
You are basing this on the assumption that the war will end if Russia captures this last 5% of territory. Why do you think so? Do you believe that Ukraine will suddenly stop fighting and agree to all of Russia's terms of surrender if Russia manages to occupy this last 5% territory? No (at least not with Zelensky). Do you think Russia will stop fighting? No, because Russia doesn't want a ceasefire (a stalemate). Remember, territorial occupation is just one of its military goals. If Ukraine is not willing to reduce the size of its military, through diplomatic treaties with Russia, then the Russians will strive to achieve this militarily. And for that it needs them to keep fighting. From my perspective, that's just a tragedy because there is no point in fighting a war you cannot win, and one that actually benefits your opponent as the war drags on.
The tendency among Russian apologists to belittle Ukraine at every opportunity and deny its independence is a defining trait, isn't it. The credit for keeping the Russian invaders at bay goes to Ukrainian drone manufacturers and drone crews, who are responsible for about 80% of all battlefield deaths. NATO countries have neither comparable expertise nor gear.
"Mostly" sounds modestly, if we take into account that Russia claims to have destroyed Ukrainian air force about three times over, yet Ukrainian MIGs keep flying. Likewise, the remaining drone manufacturers must be working overtime then, because the monthly Russian casualties in September were the highest of 2026, climbing from 32k in January to 46k in September. There are early reports that at least some Russian frontline units are no longer receiving reinforcements as they did before, because the people allocated for this year have been expended and there is no-one left to replace them. Earlier this year, Ukraine estimated that the breaking point would be somewhere around 50k casualties per month.
The only place where I see such narratives besides the dead comments on HN is Russian state TV. Elsewhere, even among the Russian domestic experts, taking these propaganda narratives seriously is a quick way to discredit oneself. Hitler said that he invaded Poland to break Anglo-French encirclement of Germany and secure the country against aggression, yet we don't take such nonsense seriously, do we?
It's always the same accounts too!
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It is a fact that Russia is fighting a NATO trained, NATO armed, NATO supported and NATO financed Ukrainian army. (Otherwise, why is Zelensky worried that the US might cutoff intelligence access to it?). And it is a fact that western superpowers don't like this fact to be highlighted because it reminds the rest of the world (the Global South) of the callousness of the superpowers in using other countries for their own political games. While most Europeans might be ignorant about it, the rest of the world recognizes the simple fact that this is actually a proxy war between western superpowers and Russia (+ China), where neither side actually cares much about Ukraine and sees it as a pawn. And the blame for this lies squarely on the inept and corrupt leadership of Ukraine for not understanding this.
It is common knowledge that Ukraine moved most of their Air Force assets to other countries, to prevent its destruction. It was the right move, but also makes them less useful as it isn't immediately available when needed. And it is also factual that Russia has targeted and destroyed most of the local military infrastructure, including drone manufacturing units this year, so that Ukraine now depends on its manufacturing units abroad or foreign imports for its needs. Again, a smart move, which also has its drawbacks.
All these battle tactics, and some battle victories, doesn't change the basic maths of warfare though - even with the limited support from allies, Ukrainian military is outnumbered and outgunned by the more powerful Russian military and thus cannot defeat it alone. That is why they are losing - they have lost soldiers, territory, their citizens, their economic infrastructure and economy incapacitated to the point of no return.
It is also a fact that the cowardice of Europeans is apparent in that they can only offer Ukrainians keyboard warriors who cheer them to fight on with fake propaganda and platitudes, while putting down anyone else as "Russian apologists" for talking common sense. (Comparing Putin to Hitler is laughable. It's also a typical westerner attitude to politics to think in "black and white" - if you are not with me, you are against me and thus my enemy, your reasons be damned!).
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