Comment by ModernMech

4 days ago

I'm not going to get drawn into a thousands paragraph debate about rationalists belief, so this will be my only reply and I'll welcome your rebottle.

Your evidence isn't very convincing. I think the singularity is actually framed as a battle between good and evil. How else could Sam Altman be accused of betraying humanity if what his company does isn't framed as that? Moreover, that quote pretty much proves what I'm saying about tech CEOs, how the rationalists view them. There's no "betrayal" here, Sam is and always has been a craven capitalist. One would only feel betrayed by him if they believe in him as someone who violated an implicitly shared dogma.

And that's the big reason for the fallout you're identifying. Early on people like Sam Altman and Elon Musk pretended to be saving humanity through their investments and corporations. It was a marketing ploy and rationalists bought into it hook line and sinker. Of course it was always a ruse, of course these guys were never going to deliver, because at the end of the day their goals were to become rich. Which they achieved. So now the world-saving facade is dropped, and the rationalists who bought into it are none too pleased. Even this line:

"Elon is widely known to be a strong engineer, as well as a strong designer, and spends much of his time arguing details of that kind of work with his reports. Mark Zuckerberg is known to do similarly."

Is very flattering of Musk's and Zuckerberg's supposed engineering prowess. One only need look at the Cyber Truck to understand what kind of designer and engineer Musk is.

> Clearly he's a theologian and computer science is just another religion!

I mean you could take it in that direction. Various cults like the cult of Apple that flourished around Steve Jobs, who himself was a bit of a cult leader. There's a cult around Elon Musk. The thing that's missing is the deity of AI, which is unique to the rationalist community. You might even be able to say that academia is a religion that's formed around to worship science, and there's a lot of parallels between religion there too, down to the dresses and funny hats.

> every field will have its "theologians"

They're theologians when they talk of theology rather than theory. Knuth is a practician. People talking about the singularity are like the guy on the street saying the end is nigh, and people writing blogs about it are essentially priests saying the same thing from a pulpit, the equivalent of theologians are the ones writing scientific papers about it.

> If someone mixes up "A implies B" and "B implies A" or something, you don't need to be an internet-rationalist to think they're wrong or to criticize their argument.

That's not exactly what I'm talking about, logical fallacies are fine and you should point them out when it's relevent. What I mean is for example if you're talking to a rationalist, and you make an appeal to emotion, that's regarded as an invalid argument. Or an even better example is when you make an appeal to authority when it matters, and you get into an argument about whether it's valid or invalid ad hominem. In normal discourse, people make emotional and authoritative arguments and those are valid to consider. In rationalist communities, that's considered a logical fallacy, and the discussion is over. So more often than not when you're talking to a rationalist, the conversation devolves into a debate about which fallacies are being applied and whether they're valid or invalid, because the only thing they'll consider is logos. The doctrine here is that pathos and ethos are invalid forms of persuasion. This is why they're so comfortable rejecting expertise, and why it was so easy to be fooled by people like Musk who used good arguments but lacked actual expertise.

I'll attempt to be brief.

If you think it's likely that there will be a singularity and it will be bad, then you'll regard someone working toward it as bad. That doesn't mean that there's any good-versus-evil-ness about the singularity itself. Whereas Armageddon is specifically a battle of good against evil, the Last Judgement is specifically a separation of people into (something like) good versus evil, etc.

The "betrayal" line is saying that OpenAI was founded as, supposedly, an ethical company trying to make sure that AI worked out for the good of humanity, and Altman is failing to live up to that. It doesn't have anything to do with any high view of Altman personally.

I agree that that line is more positive about both Musk and Zuckerberg than either deserves. But the claim wasn't "some rationalists think too highly of tech CEOs", it was "rationalists think about tech CEOs like religious people think about their high priests", and the point is that nothing I've found suggests that that's so. Sometimes people say nice things about (say) Mark Zuckerberg, sometimes not so nice (there was one comment where someone suggested that a different approach to AI safety might have resulted in "Mark Zuckerberg stamping on a face for ever") but no more of it than in the world at large is looking reverently to them as authorities.

If you're happy also saying that computer science and academia in general are religions, then fair enough, but at this point I think saying "X is a religion" is no longer really saying anything.

I don't know whether you're right or wrong in saying that rationalists are too unwilling to accept arguments that are logically invalid but persuasive in other ways, but this seems a long way from saying that logical fallacies are to rationalists as heresies are to (say) Christians.

  • > but this seems a long way from saying that logical fallacies are to rationalists as heresies are to (say) Christians.

    Logical fallacies do nothing to show an argument is wrong.

    All they do is demonstrate that a chain of reasoning cannot be a logical proof that the conclusion must be true, given its premises.

    Dismissing arguments because "they're fallacious" is actually not so far removed from dismissing ideas because they're heretical.

    In each case, what matters is whether the ideas are true, not whether your interlocutor proved rigorously it is true.