Comment by Loquebantur
1 day ago
"Robotic" isn't new, human-level ability in manipulation is.
The same goes for self-driving cars. It's a exponential, hockey-stick curve that at some point crosses the level of human ability. There is nothing "linear" about it and your suggestion of parallels to former experience is wildly misguided.
People fail to notice, most jobs are less complicated than math and programming. The "obstacles" there are of the kind of "we always did it this way", but that's no real "moat"?
The bubble regarding the big AI firms may well collapse, but the assumption, that was somehow improving the situation is far-fetched.
People automated out of a job will either compete with those in other jobs or be dependent on support. Either way, salaries will fall across the board and prices rise. At an ever accelerating pace.
Prices can't rise while salaries fall in a functioning economy. Humans will continue to be cheaper for many physical applications. Your suggestions of the inevitable exponential curve for the improvement and application of these technologies is wildly misguided.
There’s lots of low price immigrant labour around the world, that are very mobile.
Ahem - work visa - ahem.
> Prices can't rise while salaries fall in a functioning economy.
Absolutely they can, have, and have recently for many.
I’m not following robotics closely but last time I checked we were still far from “human level ability”, it was PR lies notably from Tesla that play on the confusion with the progress in AI.
> People fail to notice, most jobs are less complicated than math and programming.
It is known since the 80s as the Moravec paradox that coginition is not the hard part in robotics.
Automation is coming for manual jobs that are repetitive in a controlled environment, like warehouse logistics. But automation for jobs that require fine hand dexterity, constant adaption to new environments and human interactions (trades, healthcare, etc.) is not on the horizon.
The robotic tech demonstrations I see daily on Twitter are significantly better than what you are thinking. There are visible major improvements from year to year. Specifically robotic hands are hitting the point where it can easily sort eggs or pick fruit.
> Either way, salaries will fall across the board and prices rise
You're probably right about the rest. I don't understand how prices can rise when salaries fall. Who's paying the higher prices?
You can't have falling salaries and rising prices for a very long time before society collapses. It would have domino effects to the point of anarchy, people lose their jobs and banks become landlords, but the houses are worth nothing so banks collapse, with it goes the stock exchanges. Now there's no financial system in place at all, and all you're left with is strawberry picking robots and some tech billionaires living on their islands with their robot pets and flying cars.
Now if all these resources were instead put into actually improving things, then we'd be far better of, unfortunately, for all the intelligence the people behind these things possess, they seem to be stuck in the "lets do the same but faster" mindset.
> all you're left with is strawberry picking robots and some tech billionaires living on their islands with their robot pets and flying cars
I'm pretty sure that's the goal of a solid majority of wealthy people, if not literally all of them. Fully automate their lives of luxury and let the rest of us rot.
What's stopping normies from getting their own robots to automate things? A singular one of these things will be less than 1k and you'll see them everywhere in every junk yard. If I could tell one to go plant a tree my land would be significantly more productive. As it is now it's decidedly not. I don't really understand this idea that only the rich will have access to this tech. It makes no sense.
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