Comment by SiempreViernes
14 hours ago
Probabilistic Monte Carlo simulations are a way to check your guesses, if you claim you can't even guess at how things work you should consult a professional astrologer.
14 hours ago
Probabilistic Monte Carlo simulations are a way to check your guesses, if you claim you can't even guess at how things work you should consult a professional astrologer.
No, I claim that I can't check it without making another, more difficult guess. If my guess is a trading rule, to check it I need to (independently?) model the whole distribution of the multivariate stochastic process that produces it, which is more complex. My question was: how can I claim that my Monte Carlo check is reliable if I need to _guess_ how to check instead of _knowing_ how to check?
It’s a more useful tool than no tool. We are talking about predicting the future after all…