Comment by sokoloff

I agree that it’s a tool to explore risk. I just think it’s more useful if you pull the likely universe of outcomes from the sequences of the past (sliding your retirement across multiple starting dates) more than worry about what happens if we get multiple -43% years in a row. There’s no realistic portfolio that will survive that, but also no realistic underlying economic model where that happens (or if it does, where what you have saved really matters).