Comment by howunfortunate
15 hours ago
Present valuations are an aggregate of what investors (and speculators, in the case of the secondary prediction market) believe about their future.
If by 'collapse' you really mean a 50%+ fall, timing is not going to make or break you by any means.
You linked to a betting market that ends in a week and then said that timing isn't important. I don't understand you.
Let me spell it out.
If Anthropic is going to crash 50% or more at some unknown time in the next two years, and you have foreknowledge of this, you can easily make a massive profit by placing a bet weekly. The odds are VERY long per week, so on each losing bet you only lose a tiny amount, but on your winning week you will more than make up for it.
Timing is, as a general rule, important. In the particular case we're discussing, the odds of a 50% swing are so low that you can tolerate being VERY wrong on the timing if you are correct on the swing.
This assumes all other information remains exactly the same as it is currently. That is not how the real world works, however. As time goes on, and it becomes more obvious that the company is floundering, the "long shot" will no longer be such a long shot, and will not have as high of a return.
idk, if "prediction markets" remain a real thing, there should probably be some requirement for previous experience in options-adjacent markets to ensure people actually understand the economics of time-valued positions.