Comment by mike_hearn
18 hours ago
It's clearly not a constant in the sense that the speed of light or name of the first US President is a constant. There are lots of different answers a model could give to this question, it's not like this is obviously the only correct answer. Yet they all reach the same conclusion.
Which means either:
1. The training sets, algorithms and methodologies are nearly identical between apparently independent labs. How?
2. There is something weird about the way the underlying algorithms work that causes them to converge on identical ideas despite different initializations, neural architectures, document orderings and dataset compositions.
So there are lots of interesting takeaways here.
One is that apparent competition between labs appears to be nearly redundant. They can't get an edge over each other and their models don't even differ in the ways people naturally differ, of having different opinions about things.
Another is that asking models from different companies to review or cross-check each other is probably useless. They all think completely alike, so they aren't going to have any kind of genuine clash of intuitions or values. Asking GPT to review Claude's work will probably just find similar problems to asking GPT to review its own work.
> They can't get an edge over each other and their models don't even differ in the ways people naturally differ, of having different opinions about things.
Of course - the models are not individuals with their own opinions - they are averages of human opinion, and given the scale of the training sets, the data they are averaging over is mostly in common between models (at least for the common core before company A vs B adds a dab of some uniquely sourced specialized data to the mix).
There are two possible scenarios.
Regarding your 1 and 2, that the training sets are so large that any spikes get averaged away. You are seeing a fundamental behavior of transformers.
The other possibility is this is how humans really are and it hurts our human ego to hear it.
Well, how humans really are is a distraction. Or at least not a philosophical issue I feel like debating tonight.
I think if you ask ten people for their most controversial take on humanity, you will get ten totally different answers. Different models give the same answer. In other words, there is only one "true" model and given the same amount of GPU power everyone just ends up converging on it even if they appear to have many different knobs they can turn.
But that seems profound! I haven't heard this be expressed as a postulate or law, and it would seem to invalidate a lot of assumptions the AI labs themselves have been making. For example Anthropic takes it as axiomatic that only they should be trusted to develop AI because only they can be trusted to train a nice and safe personality into their models. They argue that Claude is fundamentally different to other models.
And, well, that's not totally wrong. Opus 5.5 is one of the few models with a genuinely different answer! But it only gives a different answer one time out of three. The other two times it's back to the AI groupthink.
I wonder if this homogeneity is some alternative way to look at the Bitter Lesson. The Lesson teaches that smart ideas don't pay off in AI, that progress reduces to just scaling up simple brute force algorithms. In other words, decisions don't matter much, only size. As that seems to be true, perhaps it makes sense that the decisions individual labs make seem to hardly make a difference.
But then, why don't they act like it? They all pay huge salaries to AI researchers, i.e. they think that creative people with smart ideas matter. They don't act like they really believe in the Bitter Lesson or this variant on it, and they don't seem to publicly discuss the sameness of model answers across different labs.
> I think if you ask ten people for their most controversial take on humanity, you will get ten totally different answers.
What if you asked them in a job interview, though? Or on a college application?
It has to supply "controversy" without giving Skynet or being racist or otherwise offensive. And the notion of "controversy" does implicitly prime it to discuss groupthink as well.
What would be the most interesting is option 3. This behavior is so apparent and pervasive in human interaction that it dominates other answers.
I don't know if that's true, but it would be interesting.
Image models give a different answer though, to do with smartphones. But all the image models give the same answer, they're only different compared to LLMs. Surely if it were obvious the image models would give the same answer as the text models.
As a human meatbag myself it seems that separating 'human' from 'humans' is nearly impossible for us. Every single one of us things we're a special an unique snowflake, which is true in many ways. We just happen to willfully ignore all the ways in which we are the same. We ignore and discount the things we don't think about and do automatically.
It's kind of funny how science has spent the last few hundred years proving everything we knew about the world was different from how we previously thought it was, but when science starts showing that we are mostly angry little animals we get all butthurt about it.