Comment by echoangle

12 hours ago

Shouldn’t the expected value of attempting this somehow include the likelihood of the key actually being on the machine? Surely the probability is much higher than 0? I would guess the expected value for actually being the first one is around $300, not 0

> Surely the probability is much higher than 0

I genuinely have no idea how to even start calculating this probability. How would we do it? Is there reliable data on honeypots?