Comment by somenameforme

4 days ago

I don't think I was stating or implying anything else? It's also completely reasonable to say that US has been in relative decline, though to a lesser degree than Europe. Though I wouldn't call China a hegemon. They have the largest economy in the world, by an increasingly wide margin, but I think we've fully entered into a multipolar world and we will probably be staying here for the foreseeable future at least.

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somenameforme

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locknitpicker  4 days ago

> it's also completely reasonable to say that US has been in relative decline

I'm not sure you understood the point, which is that relative trends are irrelevant.

If there's a single member who outgrows everyone and increases its share of the global market, of course all other members will see their relative share shrink.

  • somenameforme  4 days ago

    This somehow reminds me of that Winston Churchill joke:

        Churchill: Madam, would you sleep with me for $1 million?
    Woman: Why Winston, yes I would.
    Churchill: How about $10?
    Woman: What sort of woman do you think I am?
    Churchill: We've already established that. Now we're just negotiating the price.

    With countries all things are relative. A rich country isn't rich because of some specific number, but only relative to another country or countries. And in this case the EU is objectively in decline. From there we can debate about whether it's due to the more rapid rise of other countries, bureaucracy imperiling innovation, or whatever else - but those are the details, and in reality it's almost certainly going to be a bit of everything.

    Something I'd emphasize is that the main reason that China/India are rising is simply because relative tech disparities between nations are fading rapidly. And once you have at least remotely comparable tech, the size of your economy is going to be heavily dependent upon your population. The US has 340 million people. China and India have about 1400 million. That's a losing battle. But notably the EU has 450 million. That's well below China/India, but well ahead of the US. That should count for something, but for some reason it seemingly does not.