Comment by sigmar
20 hours ago
People have been saying the openweight models would collapse anthropic's revenue since the deepseek moment in January of 2025. They've stayed ahead in model intelligence and increased revenue by a lot since then.
Not saying it couldn't happen in the future, but we've got to be circumspect about that narrative after almost 2 years of it, no?
January 2025 isn’t even two years ago yet. When you’re talking about giant companies going public you want to be looking at significantly longer timescales than that.
How much of that revenue is usage from hosting partners (AMZN, M$, etc) who have a vested interest in using Anthropic instead of open weights though?
Well then the fact that those hosting partners have 10+ year commitments should make you pretty confident then, right?
Claude max sub is like 4x cheaper than deepseek equivalent, isn't it? At least 2x cheaper.
The thing holding open models back is the insane cost of gpus. If/when that cost goes down… look out closed models!
In January 2025 most of us didn’t even consider the frontier models good enough for regular usage.
Why would you be circumspect if the gap kept getting closer?
Doesn't that indicate its becoming _more_ true?
What is the evidence the gap is closing? Seems like it has been the same "6 months behind" since Jan 2025. The first fable was trained in march and we still don't have an openweight model as capable
Not everything needs SOTA (State of the Art).
If you control for cost, not only the gap closed, but it switched already.
DeepSeek 4.1 Flash dominates perf/cost for suitable tasks.
And if you do need SOTA, Kimi 3.1 Pro scores 55 on https://artificialanalysis.ai vs 58 of Opus 5.5. And they were released 1 month appart.
Kimi even outperforms Opus on some tasks because it doesn't downgrade its intelligente on cyber and cryptography workloads or ban you if you use it for LLM research.
So the gap is 1 month, or zero, depending on your needs.
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