Comment by solarpunk_enthu
5 hours ago
Given how quickly the field is moving, showing benchmarks without releasing the model is quite meaningless. If they decide to release it in one month, there will probably be a stronger competition out there. And the benchmarks won't look as good.
100%. They don't even suggest a release timeline other than "we look forward to bringing Carbon to developers, businesses, and consumers soon". Claude and GPT-6.x will no doubt have improved versions by the time "soon" comes around.
Has there ever been a product category where a product release is valuable for a shorter time than with LLMs? Trying to build SOTA models seems like it'd be an exhausting hamster wheel to work on.
A lot of the work is carried over model to model, so I think the most comparable product is a live service game. Always have to be building on the last thing, and if you stop you'll essentially lose the entirety of the initial investment because you won't keep anyone's attention. Plus a healthy dose of "winner-takes-most".
Just. Yaknow. 100x the costs, at the least.
When every day matters to profitability, I'm really surprised providers do voluntary cyber security testing or government approval in the critical path.
To be honest, if I were an LLM provider I would be wiring up my release process to be fully automated so within 10 mins of the last bit of fine-tuning it got released and a blog post posted.
Google is in it for the long haul, not to IPO before they run out of money.
I can't tell if they're withholding access to manufacture some sense of scarcity but the delays are really prolonged. I'm nervous to use Gemini models anyway, as its attached to my Google account and I've seen too many people having their whole account banned for dubious reasons (with little recourse).
Also the whole "we're only releasing it to cyber defenders first" framing is weird, is any Gemini model an actual cyber risk?
Could it be TPU/GPU availability? ie, is it possible that it's more profitable for their compute to be serving Anthropic models, so Gemini customers are stuck with lower compute available.
They've always been realllly slow to roll out stuff outside the org when it comes to AI. Most googlers themselves likely won't have access to this model internally.
Isnt it about risk?
Just because you saw your friend move to a new country for a job doesnt mean you will make the same choices, even if you are similarly qualified.
It doesn't seem possible to actually release frontier models quickly any more. Given their cyber capabilities, playing nice with the powers that be is probably required these days.
Somehow OpenAI and Anthropic have been releasing new models on the day of announcement.
Seems like Google could do it too.
They have to announce it now because by the time they are ready to release it, it won't be the best at anything.
Anthropic and OpenAI are not releasing their best models for several months, because their second best models are still better than everything else available.
As long as it's from US lab, it'll also have to go through US apparatus.
They released Argon shortly after announcing it, so I think some benefit of the doubt is reasonable here. They claim they're already evaluating it via the government.
I suspect they're announcing it for two reasons: to get ahead of all the leaks; and because it's earnings report day.
Doesn't Google have a particularly bad record recently at making their models publicly available?
Especially on their Plus tier for Gemini.
I think it's a fair concern that this might take weeks and trail Fable 5.5.
They released Argon shortly after announcing it, so I think some benefit of the doubt is reasonable here.
I've bought my girlfriend a Google ai plus sub because she's not a developer and just wants some search and image generation but the fact that she's still stuck on flash 3.6 is a joke, why would I keep paying for that at this point
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Not really[1]. I had access to Argon within an hour of the release announcement.
The Google AI Plus tier does not give better model access than free, it is strictly for usage limits. Same thing as ChatGPT Go (which currently only has access to GPT-5.6 Luna, same as the free tier too.)
[1] For consumers at least. IIRC google business/entreprise accounts have worse model access even in the business/entreprise version of Google AI Pro.
I think the majority of traffic is from Enterprise customerd that goes through their API. Their consumer facing products do lag, but I don't think they care.
It makes the best case for why Anthropic isnt worth its potential valuation. Anthropics customers are almost only turbo nerds.
Google has the products, the brand recognition, the hardware, the data and most importantly a billion normies.
Google was always going to win this thing, although I wouldn't discount meta. The only thing that matters is mindshare and Anthropic and OpenAI have largely generated NEGATIVE sentiment, outside some fanboys.
Google and Meta can plop cute products into your daily driver apps and you wont know the difference.
If Google is going for the casual group of users, why do they make their AI offerings so hard to buy?
because selling inference is not their end-goal product, its just a milestone to continue to maintain positive public sentiment and attract talent
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Thats kind of the brilliant thing, you dont need to seek it out. Their AI will just slowly get integrated into their products you already use. I'm more so saying that normies will use AI when it lands in the apps they already use. Google AI features have been popping up all over their ecosystem. Normies do not want claude code and they think Dario and Sam are both disgusting human beings, stictly off of vibes.
Anthropics only moat is vendor lock on Claude Code, especially if they cant maintain being the front runner of the frontier model space, this is a really brittle moat. Brittle moats wont attract strong investment at a 1-2T valuation (not to mention all the other fiscal unknowns).
I just want OpenAI and Anthropic to lose because they seem to be the ones going around saying they're going to replace peoples jobs, and usurp the value of human labor.
Id rather Meta and Gemini suceed who will genuinely just integrate it into normal products we already use. Their sales teams are not approaching my boss and telling them they can reduce their payroll burden by spending my paycheck on tokens and firing me.
Coding is going to be one of the smaller pieces of the AI revolution. People on this site are focused on it, but there are 10000x more opportunities outside of coding where Anthropic and OpenAI have zero presence. Anthropic might as well be an IDE company, Is jetbrains worth 2T? to signal that they can be useful in other fields because they know this is an issue.
> Google has the products
Outside their most successful products (YouTube, Android, GMail, Chrome, Search), their products are usually worse than their competitors (e.g. GMeet vs Zoom)
> the brand recognition
Of not maintaining/outright abandoning their products, and making Search worse over the years?
> most importantly a billion normies
ChatGPT has 1.2B weekly active users, all the normies know what ChatGPT is but don't know about Gemini (outside the "AI Mode" stuff)
Outside of their successful products their products are terrible isn't even an argument.
They have many successful products. Most have only 1-2.
Youtube, Android, Chrome, Search, Photos, Workspaces, Cloud, Fitbit, Pixel Phones, Waymo not to mention dozens of open source projects.
> Of not maintaining/outright abandoning their products, and making Search worse over the years?
You just said their products are terrible. They do shut the products that do not meet the bar. That is good thing.
> ChatGPT has 1.2B weekly active users, all the normies know what ChatGPT is but don't know about Gemini (outside the "AI Mod
No one needs to know what Gemini are. If they have used search they have used it.
> (e.g. GMeet vs Zoom)
I dunno if that's a great example - I'm sure Zoom has more awareness in the zeitgeist, but from my standpoint it's an app most well-known for security problems and abusing OS conventions, while Google Meet just quietly and simply works whenever I want to call my mom.
Sure, bug Google always seems to be unable to deliver good UX. UX matters if it's bad enough and there are competing options that are much friendlier and easy to engage.
Android is a UX, and so is gmail and calender. This is where 99% of people will use AI for the remainder of their lives. Very little of the forward looking value proposition of AI has to do with coding/harnesses. AI + coding is rapidly deflating as far as revenue potential, and TAM has been saturated and is possibly shrinking.