Comment by jbullock35
13 hours ago
For what it's worth, a loss of "between 8.5 percent and 12.5 percent of world GDP" would be catastrophic. Relative to a baseline of 0% GDP growth --- which would itself be terrible --- a worldwide loss of 8.5% to 12.5% of GDP would entail the deaths of millions, and probably hundreds of millions.
The US GDP shrank 29% from 1929 to 1933. International trade fell by 66% between 1929 and 1932. I don't recall hundreds of millions of people dying in the 1930s.
US mortality rates declined during the 1930s. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data-visualization/mortality-trends...
World infant mortality rates generally declined during the 1930s. https://www.researchgate.net/figure/nfant-Mortality-Rates-18...