Comment by senordevnyc
2 days ago
Chess is a fixed target, so as a benchmark, it can be saturated.
Reality can’t be saturated. The set of things you can accomplish with more intelligence is unbounded. So while cheap models will continue to proliferate, there will always be a massive market at the frontier, and that won’t ever change.
Conversely, the TAM for tasks that cheap models can and have been able to one-shot for a while now is orders of magnitude larger than the TAM at the frontier. While it’s kind of cool that frontier models are able to solve Millennium Prize problems, there just isn’t a huge market for that sort of thing. Otherwise, professional mathematicians would be getting paid a lot more than they do now, and there would be more of them.
Nah there's plenty of TAM for frontier models even if just to take over market share from cheaper models. Fields like law or medical cn always use lower hallucination rates and smarter "human social" intelligence.
Intelligence is bounded by it's interface to reality. Until that problem is solved the set of what AI can accomplish in a reasonable timeframe is quite limited.
Until that problem is solved
Guess what could help solve it? :)
Seriously though, this “problem” will never be fully solved, we’ll just get better and better at connecting AI to the broader world, and to me that’s already the story of the last few years. Models get better, they’re able to build and drive tools to interact with both the digital and physical world better, which helps build the next generation of models, and so on.