Comment by badrequest
1 day ago
literally what is the upside? They're supposedly worth as much as meta despite having nowhere near the customer base or years of work? How much more valuation do they have to trick people into giving them before investors get a return?
Anthropic hit 9 billion ARR in Dec 2025 and 80 billion in Oct 2026. Meta hit 9 billion in 2014 and 80 billion in 2020. It is now at 250 billion. At this growth rate Anthropic will be bigger than Meta already next year.
Caveats: It's hard to believe that this growth rate would continue. And Meta's numbers above are trailing 12 months, while Anthropic's are annualized run rate.
We already know the growth rate doesn’t continue, their q3 is a massive slowdown compared the 26H1.
Also, ARR as in Annualized Run Rate is a bullshit, non-standard metric only used to mislead investors
> Anthropic hit 9 billion ARR in Dec 2025 and 80 billion in Oct 2026
This is a bit misleading and based on projections of prior reported months. Growth has already slowed, Q3 in dollars was less than Q2. The timing aligns largely with the growth (since mid-summer) of open weight models.
https://www.regenerator1.com/p/anthropics-growth-just-flatte...
$80B ARR with an ~$160B net loss.
some of you are acting like earth is the size of jupiter and there's 800 billion humans not 8
World's best or next best LLM, at least for code.
Since they actually have paying customers, it's a completely different sort of thing than for Meta. The question is instead whether they can keep at the frontier, whether the compute they've signed up for is good enough, etc.
What on earth are you smoking. Meta has lots of high paying customers, their revenue last year was 200 billion, roughly 44x Anthropic's revenue.
Ah, I simply hugely underestimated how big Meta was.
Why does years of work matter? Serious question.
I think this is down to how investors think about how to value a piece of a company. I think about it almost the same way as I think about sports gambling.
There's a value proposition in which direction the stock is going to go and how long it's going to take to get there. It only makes sense to be invested in a stock if you think it's going to be worth more later than it is now and the amount of time your money is tied up in this stock is commensurate with the profit you may get as a result.
Investors work on limited information about companies, and having a track record can influence a buying decision one way or another. It may matter to some investors and not to others. For many, it's weighed against the price of the stock. Would you bet $100 on a company with a short track record? What about $10,000, $100,000, or more? Generally there's a point where people drop out of buying more of a stock and say that they can't justify the risk given the information they have. That's the expected value that Anthropic will receive from that investor.
Anthropic needs to worry about what that number is for a huge amount of individual investors and how to maximize the amount of money put into the cost of their stocks, and there's very little chance that they can attract the biggest pool of investor money without some of those people considering their longevity vs a more established company like Meta. It may not matter to all investors, but the fact that it will matter to some makes it a factor in the total valuation.
Possibly speaks to its moat being weak, if a dedicated team from scratch can duplicate their efforts and get to where they are today in 2 years (but not where they will be).
It's not work, but the Lindy effect makes Anthropic's outlook in 2032 very uncertain.
Because building a stable revenue base takes time. We've had many flash-in-a-pan type product but things which still make money 10 years later are rare.
Its the growth potential and the product they already have.
Companies are now building the agentic layer, the agentic layer eats tokens. Everything you do every process will have tokens eaten inbetween.
Your HR Request? AI Tokens. Everything.
That plus Meta's Muse Wonder LLM is very close to Opus 5.5.
Its not. Perhaps in Metas own Benchmarks but not on the public listed results.
Do you know how companies are valued?