Comment by cgearhart

I’m broadly aware with some of this and specifically aware of the work on RL environments. That’s exactly my point—the models are still a bit bigger and we know that there’s lots of capacity left to improve capabilities, but it’s not getting orders of magnitude bigger like they were originally and if it’s just “more RL” then we’re consuming a finite capacity more effectively. So either we’ve exponentially underestimated the full capacity of the models at current scale or any kind of exponential improvement is going to fill the available capacity extremely fast. It remains unclear to what degree of “superintelligence” a full-capacity current model will achieve. (It’s already quite far past human intelligence in many specific capabilities.)

Articles like the OP seem to imply that there is no fundamental limit or that it’s just inconceivably far out. I’m sure that AI helps build AI as much for them as it does for me, but I’m not clear on the argument in support of infinite growth.